Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Sesquicentennial Post

1) Yes, for those that hadn't figured it out from the title, we have hit the 150th post mark. Hooray. In honor of this monumental occasion, we will have an extra long, 15 point post.

2) So, the first Congrats to the Pats. Hell of a game, and bring on the Donkeys (Denver version). We'll see if they roll over the Pats as easily as they did in the season with Faulk, Dillon, Seymour, Bruschi, Hobbs, et al playing instead of Amos Zeroue and Duane Starks.

3) Oh, real analysis? Okay, fine. The Pats need to work Watson and Graham up the center of the field, drawing the slow safeties into the center of the field and away from the line of scrimmage, freeing up the outside receivers to go one-on-0ne with the two rookie corners (counting their nickel) and removing the deep help for Bailey, who tends to get burnt deep. Though the Broncos front seven is fairly sturdy, they didn't have much success rushing the passer at any time during the year, so max protection is probably not needed to allow deep plays to develop. Running on them should be tough, especially in the 1-4 holes, but running a few counters as well as some screen passes should allow the Patriots to attack the perimeter a bit more effectively.

4) On defense, with the return of Seymour making Wilfork, Colvin, and McGinest look again like world-beaters, I think the running game should be much less effective than the Broncos are used to. I think the Broncos level of success on this side of the ball is going to come down to whether Jake Plummer can have success against the Patriots secondary, which is kind of like a moveable object hitting a resistable force. So, judging from the regular season meeting, Billicheck key to the game is making sure Duane Starks is nowhere near the state of Colorado. If the front seven can get a good pass rush on Plummer, and the Pats can extract the pick-prone Jake Plummer that we all know and love, the Pats should have a pretty good chance at this one. Look for a lot of cover-2 defensive looks that are just masked cover 4s, where hopefully Plummer lays a few INTs into the center of the field in the 15-20 yard range.

5) Jim Ed got hosed, as did Dawson. It is sad to see that my favorite player when I was growing up may have just missed his last great chance at the hall.

6) Joe Thorton has officially become the evil villian. Thank god he only took out Hal Gill and not Samsonov or Bergeron.

7) I feel for the Resident Female. I really do. When you wait 15 years for a playoff game, and the first pass play looks like a huge victory on a 60+ yard bomb, only to find that some ass-bag (and a former Bengal ass-bag to boot) has just crippled your star QB after his beautiful rainbow of a pass, well, that just sucks. I'm starting to wonder if Mike Brown perhaps just had his Faustian deal come home to haunt him (with the star quarterback being his Thomas Mann-esque musical skills).

8) So Momma McGuffin finally saw the new apartment, visiting for a few days, and thankfully she approved. Fortunately, she found the whole trip very relaxing, and seemed to have a wonderful time. I'm always glad to do my part.

9) I've put it off for a while, but I guess it is time to address the Yankees/Steady B's claim. Say what you want, but their pitching staff blows goats. I don't want to bother looking up the stats, ages, and peripherals, so if you want to discredit/confirm my claims, feel free to do the legwork for me. Here is the pitching staff:

Randy Johnson- Age 42, highest HR totals of career last year, and a complete douche. Sometimes scary, sometimes old. Everything you could want in an ace. Oh, wait.

Mike Mussina- no reason to think his steady decline will abate. My money is that it accelerates.

Shawn Chacon- young enough that he could be good.

Chien-Ming Wang- I don't trust anyone who doesn't drop their maiden name, especially when it is a part of their first name.

Aaron Small- Um, no.

Tanyon Sturtze- This guy's picture looks like a cross between Greg Maddux and a rat on steroids, and he lays more meatballs across the plate than chef boyarde and peter north combined.

Nuts to that. I'll take Beckett, Schilling, Wakefield, Arroyo, Paplebon/Clement/Wells.

10) 15? Man this is hard. Is anybody even still reading? Well, I guess I could bitch about my schedule for the upcoming semester. Here is my weekly schedule:
M: 1:30-3:30 PM, 6-10PM
T: 9:30-10:30 AM
W: 1:30-3:30 PM, 6-10PM
R: 9:30-10:30 AM, 7-9PM
F: 8AM-noon, 1:30-3:30PM
S: 9-11AM
S: Off

Yea! I finally have Saturday classes again! Now all I need is terrible acne and my virginity back, and it will be just like high school all over again!

11) The Jets have asked the Patriots for permission to interview Mangini. Really? Okay, first, why would you need permission from the Pats to do that? Second, they just get done with a terrible coach like Herm Edwards, so why on earth would you want to replace him with a mangina, much less multiple mangini?

12) Julian "Kruger" Tavarez to the Sox. I'll take it. But only if he takes his medication.

13) Screw Flanders.
14) Screw Flanders.
15) Screw Flanders.


At 12:12 PM, January 12, 2006, Blogger Lindsey said...

so i like the pats and all but if they beat the broncos i will cry...and it will not be pretty, though honestly i expect the pats to win but buy a very small margin

At 2:14 PM, January 12, 2006, Anonymous Dorf said...

How come I haven't commented on football yet? What's wrong with me, Fletcher? What?!?!

So, last week I liked the 'Skins and Bengals, both to win. I got the 'Skins game right, but got Van Oelhoffened in the Steelers/Bengals game. I also bet the under ni 'Skins/Bucs game, which came through. You'd think, based on that, that I'd have won money, right? Well, no. I also am an unfortunte gambling Giants fan, who loaded up on them, AND put them in a parlay and a teaser. So I lost heavily. Now, with my loyalties gone, I'm free to focus on actual intelligent gambling.

So far this week, I like the under (44) in the NE/Den game, the over (41.5) in the 'Skins/'Hawks game, and the 'Skins to cover that ridiculous 9.5 point spread. I already bet on the Broncos with my buddy Matt: I only did it because I don't really like the game one way or the other (Broncs favored by 3), but this gives me a chance to have some action on the game with no juice. This will probably anger the gambling gods, so if the Pats win, you have me to thank.

Finally, I'm thinkint about teasing the over (30.5 down to 23.5) in the Bears/Panthers game with the Colts and Seahawks (both giving 9.5, so that would bring them down to 2.5 each). Seems like a no-brainer, except for the over in the Bears/Panthers game. My thought process goes like this: When you have two unbelievable defenses with two turnover-prone QBs (both are averaging one interception per game), you have the ingredients for defensive scores, which almost always throw the balance of power in favor of the over. Not to mention I jsut don't see the Bears shutting down the Carolina offense the same way they did in the first meeting because DeShaun Foster is a much better running back at this stage of his career than Stephen Davis is. Also, Foster is turnover prone, so maybe that means more defensive scores, or at least good field position. We'll see...

At 4:27 PM, January 12, 2006, Anonymous Dorf said...

OK, so I've done some research, and I have a couple of revisions to make to my picks:

First of all, I'm no longer sold on the over in the Was/Sea game. Each time this season Seattle has played against a good defense, they've failed to score a lot of points. I could see Washington holding them to 20 or 17, which puts the over in serious jeopardy. In fact, I'm actually considering making a small wager on the money line for Washington - I think they have a better chance to win this game than most people realize. I'm still going to include Seattle in that teaser I mentioned earlier, because I think they're still the prohibitive favorite because of home-field advantage and the two weeks off they've just had, but this is really a pretty close match-up. Seattle's record is inflated due to playing in the worst division in football, and playing against the AFC South (their only loss to an AFC team came in week 1 against Jax, because they played the Colts after they already had nothing left to play for).

Next (and last), I think I like Carolina to win in Chicago. Two pretty evenly matched teams, the team with home field and a week off should have the advantage, right? Well, I think the playoff experience of Carolina and the inexperience of Grossman will show through here. Also, Kasay is a much better kicker than Gould, and the kicking game will likely play an important role in this game. I guess my point is, we're talking about a lot of intangibles and wild-cards here, and it's really a toss-up, so the value bet is getting an extra quarter for every dollar you bet by putting money on the Carolina money line.

At 5:49 PM, January 12, 2006, Anonymous The Internet said...

I think dorf and lindsey should get together because they both annoy me.

At 10:13 PM, January 12, 2006, Anonymous Dorf said...

I think whoever posted that should go fuck themselves, because they annoy me.

At 7:53 AM, January 13, 2006, Blogger Fletcher Austin McGuffin said...

Civility, people, civility. I can't believe that people are being hostile to each other in an annonymous and consequence-free setting.


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