Wednesday, July 18, 2007

There is a fine line between fun-loving and alcoholism, but from this side it sometimes looks like two lines

Thoughts, defects, and short-comings:

For those who have enjoyed the recent run-up in the stock market of late, the next couple days would be an excellent time to rebalance your portfolios. While I have no particular gut feeling about the market one way or the other (except maybe a mini-bubble trying to get the Blue Chips over 14k), my portfolio is pretty far out of whack from the last six months. My 80/20 stock bond mix that was balance on January 2 is currently sitting at 86/14. My more aggressive retirement accounts are at 92/8 (from 85/15). So today is the day.

Also, in case you are interested in a little financial porn, I've discovered a website called which is a peer to peer lending site. If you want $25 free dollars to lend (and a nice $25 kickback referral for me), click on the link to the right and sign up. So, if you want to make 1 loan, you just need $25 net (you have to make a loan before you get the $25, unfortunately). If anyone actually wants to hear a budding game theorists take on proper bidding strategies and risk-weights, please leave a comment in the comment section and I will do a post about the stuff. Otherwise, I won't bore you beyond the fact that it is essentially my "seedy-motel on a business trip" component to my otherwise "happy marriage" portfolio of stocks and bonds .

The maddeningly-consistent inconsistency of my .500 Red Sox is starting to get to me. With a 7 game lead in the Loss column over the Yankees (half of the seasons high-water mark), I'll admit that I'm starting to get a little antsy. While a team with excellent pitching, high OBP, 3 excellent relievers, an easy schedule, and a still good-sized lead is nothing to sneeze at, I am starting to get a little frustrated that the balls are not falling when they should. I know that a lot of it at this point is luck (we keep getting on base, just not getting home, which forecasts well for the future), I am having trouble keeping faith by repeating to myself "statistically, we're better than this". Grrr.

As to the Sox, I am of the mind that when Schilling comes back Tavarez should go to the bullpend regardless of his next couple games. While he has done a much better than expected job in the 5th spot, I would rather see Gabbard get a go. Tavarez is about a start away from matching last year's innings total, and his splits the 2nd and 3rd time through the order are pretty indicative of a guy that should be in the bullpen. I say give Gabbard a shot; he won't light the world on fire like he did two nights ago, but his Jamie Moyer-like repetoire should play well in the 5th spot. If he fails, switch lefties and go with Lester. Or Buchholz, in about six weeks.

As to a Sox-related rumor: Wily Mo Pena straight up for Dotel. Love it. While I don't think Dotel is particularly excellent, I think he is probably more reliable at this point than Piniero or Timlin. Plus, Pena is a waste of a roster spot at this point. While I had very high hopes for Wily Mo, I just don't see him developing in Boston to the point where he is good enough for us. So, if we can get anything in return for him, we should take it. Then bring up Murphy or Moss to replace him on the roster until AAA season closes, then swap in Ellsbury as the 4th outfield for September/playoffs. Win/win organizationally, and possibly finding a strong 4th reliever would make this pitching staff pretty damn formidable (assuming Schill is effective upon his return). Of course, we would need to move either Timlin or Piniero (or Snyder), which might bring back a C+ prospect, too, but really anything at all would be a bonus.


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