I Have Rants In My Pants

2009-08-06T06:40:00.001-05:00

I knew it!

2008-04-29T08:19:00.001-05:00

New post

2008-03-25T14:14:00.002-05:00

http://sweetonion.wordpress.com/2008/03/25/magic-number-162/

My Only Friend...

2008-02-20T16:59:00.002-05:00

So, this may be it for the blog, as I've signed on to sweetonion.wordpress.com to be the resident crank and insane raver over there about sports. While I may dable my way back over here when the need to deconstruct some non-sports topic arises, you can find me at the link to the right about once a week for the maniacle ravings you have come to know and love under my current pseudonym. Also, feel free to use my amazon.com link as much as you like (hint, hint) and the links on the side. Well, until next time.
-Fletcher

The curse of the mean is its variance...

2008-02-11T08:15:00.000-05:00

That's right, I'm going there. I'm busting out a piece of econometric wisdom to title a super bowl obit. At least, I think it is econometric wisdom. Quite frankly, if it isn't, it should be, because it just has such a nice ring to it. Granted, I've never heard anyone else use the expression except me, and it is clever enough that I might actually have thought of it on my own. You know what? Screw it:

"The curse of the mean is its variance" -Fletcher Austin McGuffin

So, what the hell does this mean? Well, as anybody that had a bunch of NASDAQ stocks at the turn of millenium will tell you, just because the stock market averages a cool 10.8% return per year doesn't mean you'll get that average year in and year out. We live in a world of density forecasts, not of point forecasts. The world exists around the mathematical ideal that all things are possible, if just not probable.

For example, I can tell you that you are an idiot for playing the lottery with its astronomical odds against. Yet, if you do somehow win, does that suddenly make me the idiot? Well, honestly, I'd still say "no". Just because somebody I know wins the lottery doesn't mean I'm going to start, because in many ways it is still a losing proposing for me.

Which is not to say that the results of the super bowl were as random as the Giants winning the lottery. Far from it, in fact. But I still stand by my assertion that there was about a 1/3rd chance of a Pats blowout, a 1/3rd chance of Pats close win, and a 1/3rd chance of a Giants close win. Just because the Giants won, does that suddenly mean that I'm an idiot for saying that beforehand? Well, that's debatable, but I'd like to think that there are plenty of other reasons for suggesting I'm an idiot and a defensible prediction about the Super Bowl is not the last shred of evidence needed to be the last push to confirm my idiocy.

Look, I'm not trying to say the Pats were the better team, or that the Giants got lucky, or that the Super Bowl is invalid (which I've actually heard a few people say to varying degrees). The Giants won, the Pats lost, and now everyone and their sister is scrambling to discount the Pats first 18 games and figure out how a 10-6 team felled a team that was poised to be in the argument for the greatest ever. What I'm saying is that this is not necessary. The beauty of the game of football is the "any given Sunday", "decide it on the field", "winner take all" drama/cliche ordeal. In baseball, hockey, and that sport with the hoop, they play 5 or 7 games to determine the best team because the margins of talent are so thin. In football, especially when dealing with a perfect record, all it takes is one bad day, one dropped interception being caught, one helmet catch bouncing on the turf or one great escape turning into a sack, one man-on-man pass defended on a big blitz, and suddenly the Pats are still in the discussion of the best team ever. One 4-13 completion or better yet a 50-yard FG that puts the game into overtime instead of a loss. Would we really have such different views of both of these teams if one of Brady's last-second bombs were completed and the Pats kicked the tying FG and ended up winning?

Probably. But should we? Probably not. My whole point is not that one team is better than the other. Because "better" implies some sort of ordinal ranking that is definitive. More so than any other sport. The Giants are the champs, and that is really the assertion that matters. At this point, discussions of quality really are attempts to forecast something that has already happened, and that is the nature of the game. Sure, in baseball you have hitters who are better with fastball than breaking pitches, or lefty-righty matchups, etc. But, really, there is not a whole lot of strategy. There aren't many areas where scheme comes into play. Not so in football. It isn't so easy to say, "well, A beat B, and B beat C, so A should beat C." Maybe C's scheme is going to give A fits. And that is where the fun of the sports comes in, even when you are on the wrong end of it. Looking over the league, who would have thought that the three most challenging games the Pats had all year would come from the Ravens and the Giants (twice)? That is just the way it goes.

Now I know this is all very Zen, I'm sure, but it doesn't stop a bunch of my bratty 516s from showing up to my classes wearing 18-1 shirts. And, ultimately, what is my point? I've meandered aimlessly from half-justification to half-justification, with no clear direction or central point to the argument. Well, unfortunately, that is my point. This is my path of correcting the cognitive dissonance of the exhausting and ultimately unsatisfying journey to Super Bowl loser. This is the way I've come to grips with a quizzical gameplan, a flat and almost disinterested team that forgot to use its greatest strength from the year until the final TD drive: its usual adaptibility and its penchant for the big play on defense. There are so many angles, so many storylines attempting to reconcile the internal validity of the game wih external validity of the teams. But, really, there isn't any, and it is crushing in so many ways that only sports can be, with the combination of desire hinging on, and complete impotence over, the result rather than the journey.

The question becomes: where do I go from here? And I do mean "I", because there isn't much I can do about my team. In some way, I'll try and remember that my self-indulgent voyuerism of sports came from somewhere. And that somewhere began with Raymond Barry, Rod Rust, and Dick Macpherson. It began with Steve Grogan and Doug Flutie, Marion Butts and Tony Collins. And I've been here before, left with a winter stinging from a Super Bowl loss, wondering how my beloved coach could betray such a big game (though a poor gameplan is easier to cope with than Parcell fleeing to the Jets), that our star quarterback could perform so poorly on such a big stage (though one fumble hardly equals 4 Bledsoe interceptions). It has been a strange road to this point.

And I have to be pleased. Sure, there is always that "what could have been" voice in the back of my head. But after suffering through Pete Carrol's reign of terror, Billichek's 5-11 debut, and the aging roster brimming with mediocrity pushing hard against the salary cap, if you told me the next 7 seasons would see 7 winning records, 6 playoff berths, 5 years in the AFC Championship, 4 superbowl appearances, 3 wins, 2 years as reigning champs, 1 perfect regular season (not to mention 21 consecutive wins), and a partridge in a pear tree, I'd have taken it in a heartbeat. Especially since, despite the need for a revamped linebacker corp and secondary, the team still looks tough moving forward and has a top 10 draft pick. Things are not all bad, even if perspective comes at the expense of the betrayed expectations of 8 days ago.

So, now, with the end of the season of the greatest Patriots team I've ever seen with my own eyes, all that remains it to is to quote the greatest pitcher I've ever seen with my own eyes: "I tip my cap and call the Giants my daddy." C'est la sports.

-----------

As a side note, congrats to frequent reader and one-time roommate Steady B. In the space of a week, he saw his beloved baseball team pick up the best pitcher on the planet for a few pieces of roster detritus and his beloved football team pull of one of the greatest football upsets in history. The bastard.

Anybody else see this?

2008-01-14T17:14:00.000-05:00

Did anybody else notice Jerry Jones on the sideline at the end of the Giants game? In case you didn't, I took a few screen shots.

After being down by 7, here he was as his team looked poised to go into halftime up 14-7:

Just after the Giants tied it with a few seconds left:

When the Cowboys retook the lead in the 3rd:

In disbelief after the Giants took the lead again:

In rapt attention as Romo's final pass was in the air, optimistic that the shot in the end zone would win them the game:

When he realized that the pass was intercepted and the Giants had won:

Heist!

2007-11-29T17:44:00.000-05:00

Okay, well, I take it back. Trade for Santana. According to this story, apparently it might happen for Coco, Lester, Lowrie, and a 4th player who may or may not be Bowden. Holy hell, get that done! I mean, essentially the Sox would be exchanging a cheap young lefty (who in all likelihood has some growing pains left before he is reliable) for the best Lefty on the planet, albeit compensated appropriately. To do this, they would give up a center-fielder who we probably were going to move anyway, a stud-prospect who is probably not defensively good enough to be a SS and is blocked for at least a few years by Lugo/Pedroia/Lowell, and then a good AA prospect whose projected ceiling is probably a 2rd starter.

So, again, on paper, we are turning a young lefty into the best lefty on the planet for:
Money
Our backup CF
A prospect with no place on the big club
A pitching prospect (always dicey) who might be a solid starter (or somebody else)

Wow. If the Sox can get this deal, without giving up Buccholz or Ellsbury (or Masterson), do it. Then, give Santana 6 years at $140. Not quite the level he was hoping for dollars-wise, but I'll bet you he would take it (or at least be hard-pressed not to).

Okay, now with all that said, there has got to be no way this report is accurate (or will get it done). Particulary since Delmon Young is probably their new CF, I'm not sure why Coco would have extra value for them (and that deal included a SS, too; though again, Lowrie is probably 2B or 3B). That this deal makes so much sense to the Red Sox means that the Twins probably know that and that they will have to ask for more. I think this is a Sox leaked story to drive up the price on the Yanks. This deal, albeit still costly, makes too much sense for the Sox. If there is any traction to this, do it. But color me skeptical (yet still ridiculously excited!).

Catching up

2007-11-27T17:36:00.000-05:00

The Pats are incredible, and that game against the Eagles didn't worry me as much as I think it did some people. While I was pretty nervous during the whole ordeal, I take hope from the following:

On offense, the Pats actually did really well. Take away a questionable-at-best offensive pass intereference or the missed/not-missed field goal (the replay showed it seems to have been good), and the Pats punted twice. Their possessions were TD, TD, FG, TD, Punt, TD/FG/Missed FG debacle, 10 play drive that ended on downs at the 30, TD, Clock-kill for a punt. So, on 8 "non-clock kill" drives, they were a bad call away from 5 TDs and a FG. I'll take it. It seemed like less of a success for the offense because the Pats lost two possessions (Samuels TD-return and the onside kick Philly recovered).

On defense, they accomplished the game plan they wrote up. I was going crazy with all those in-cut passes getting completed, and I couldn't figure out why either a linebacker or Rodney Harrison wasn't dropping into coverage to at least clog up some of those passing lanes that were ridiculously open for most of the game. Watching a few replays, I started to realize that Harrison/Thomas/Colvin were staying about 4 yards behind the line of scrimmage on a lot of pass plays instead of dropping into that zone area that was open: they were spying Westbrook. I'm pretty sure the gameplan was: take away Westbrook and see if injured McNabb/AJ "backup" Feeley/Rookie could beat them. To AJ's credit, he almost did by exploiting the void in the defense that the extra defender applied to Westbrook created. This was a flaw in the game plan, not necessarily of the defense, and hopefully one that doesn't need to be repeated.

Special teams, eh, wished they'd been ready for the onside, but at the same time I would be thrilled if all our opponents always try to onside regularly: we'll recover a lot of them with better field position than on regular kickoffs.

Shifting gears:

Red Sox & baseball: The team is pretty much complete, at this point. Trade Coco (or maybe Ellsbury, whose value is probably a hell of a lot higher than the player he is destined to become for us) for some future prospect or a good reliever, resign Kielty, maybe see if you can get something valuable for Tavarez. Otherwise, you know what you have to go to war with, you have some good prospect in the rear to step up or be traded for replacements midseason, and kick some ass once the calendar turns April.

Also, avoid Santana, because you need to sign him to a free agent contract while giving up blockbuster prospect. Honestly, I'd roll the dice that he doesn't get moved and take a chance on signing him next year rather than lose 3 quality prospect (or, in all likelihood, 1 realized quality major leaguer) to pay him $20mm per. If the Yanks do trade for him, you just need to say, "oh well" and take solace in the fact that they are in weaker position to make deals or have cheap talent elsewhere and hope that Santana's spike in HRs is a trend and not a 1-year fluke. Great pitcher, but the cost to the franchise to get him may be slightly greater.

!

2007-10-28T23:13:00.000-05:00

Wow. 2nd of my lifetime. Wow.

Dancing between raindrops

2007-10-25T20:57:00.000-05:00

Live in the moment

Alright, it is time to hit this kid. Schill gives up a gift run in 1st, and Ortiz and Lugo just barely missed tacking on 2 runs. We need to rip this sucker open in the 5th. Schill needs to stop them here, then we come back out and destroy this kid. He's seen that he can't throw strikes and he knows he is inches away from being lit up. Do your part Schill, and we're good.

Of course, while typing that, Schilling gives up a walk that gets sacrificed to 2nd. Hold the line!

Got him!

Lugo scared me there for about half a second. But Schilling comes through. Bottom of the 5th. Time to knock this rookie out of the game.

After 7 huge honking fucking outs by Oki in the 8th:

This is what our other Japanese import just proved:

(No wonder his head gets pulled down during his throwing motion)

And this is his reward:

And of course Paps picks off Holliday! Tack some runs on in the 8th and have Paps shut them down in the ninth. Do it.

World Series

2007-10-24T15:01:00.001-05:00

Go Sox!

And, since this weekend also brings the hated Steelers-Bengals game to the McGuffin household, I thought I would try to pep up the Resident Female Version 2.Wife:

You always complain about the characteristics of the Steelers players. Well, baby, it aint just the players:

A Day that could buy a week, maybe even a trophy

2007-10-21T18:46:00.000-05:00

Schilling and Drew (Drew! Drew!!!) bought us one more day of baseball. Tonight, Matsuzaka can buy as a week and a shot at the trophy. Make it happen, make it be beautiful, and make it a win.

Make it 2 for 2 more...

2007-10-19T00:00:00.000-05:00

Well, it may not have gone perfectly in the series to this point, but at least the Sox have added 2 more days to their season tonight. Which means we're allowed to think about baseball for 2 more days. 29 other teams and their fans can't say they get to do that. To me, that is beautiful, because it is what baseball is all about: just getting to think about your team on a daily basis. Baseball is about being able to wrap yourself up in the moment, wrap your head up in the game, and escape your day as necessary. Just being able to say you have a game to watch, a pitching matchup to breakdown, a story to be written, and finally a box score to pour over the next morning is good enough for me. Win the world series or be eliminated in game 6, my boys have bought me another 2 days to think about them, to obsess over them, to root for them, and to scream about them. They've given my season another chance, and they've prolonged the memories of the Mother's Day comeback, the September 1 no-hitter, the emergence of an ace, and the conquest of a division, if only for 2 more days. And they've done it because they won tonight.

Down 3-2, headed to Fenway, another game on tap, and hopefully another 5-8 more after Saturday. But you know what? For now, I'll settle for just one more more. Let's make there be a game on Sunday, too. Go Sox.

9 Innings? 9 Random Points

2007-10-07T20:16:00.000-05:00

1. Well, after 7 full days as a married man, I've got to say I don't notice much difference. Granted, the bling can be a bit painful while working out and a bit distracting otherwise, but not much has changed. Granted, the wedding was as expensive as hell, so I'm very broke at the moment, but that is about it. We already were living together, the Resident Female is still a demon in the sack, and we still barely survived a Pats/Bengals MNF game without me being stabbed. It's good to be married.

2. Dane Cook. It's time to talk about Dane Cook. I don't know if anybody has noticed, but that guy is just not funny. Really, he strikes me as a poor man's Ryan Renolds who forgot to take his bipolar meds. I realize that he is considered to be the pre-eminant stand-up comedy of this generation, but that makes me more sad than anything else. He isn't funny, he is just mildly goofy and has an eye for self-promotion.

3. ALCS. Beckett was superb. Daisuke was underwhelming, but that is what Playoff Tito and our bullpen are for. Schilling looked like Burkett, but guiled his way through the Angels like the intelligent professor he is. The bullpen? Goodnight. Seriously, I don't care what team you are facing, a 1.33 ERA is pretty damn impressive. 4 runs in 27 innings is good enough proof to suggest the Sox can push into the series, before we talk about Papi, Manny et al getting into their grooves. Fabulous.

4. I was strangely disappointed and self-doubting about the Pats only winning against the Browns by a margin of 17, and letting them get back within 10 twice. I have my theories, including BB letting up a bit in the 2nd half to help his boy Romeo out, but I'm to the point of being spoiled that the Pats are just poetry in motion. We'll see how good these guys truly are at Dallas, at Indy, at Baltimore, and hosting the Steelers & Eagles; but for now, you know it is a priveledge to feel disappointed with a 17-point win.

5. Ronan Tynan is a douche. Ice the reliever all you want, but you are still a baldy-headed fuck with Kyle Farnsworth-esque ears. Seriously, that guy annoys the living crap out of me.

6. Honestly, if I actually cared about the Celtics, I would have to say this is an unbelievable time to be a Boston fan. We are coming off just a phenomenal couple of years where the Sox have been contending for a while, look to be doing so moving forward, and mid-run on a very promising potential for another WS win. The Pats have managed to win 3 superbowls, retool, accumulate a few choice draft picks (despite a lost 1st rounder), and have one of the most beautiful offenses this league has ever seen. If Jeremy Jacobs weren't a complete tool (and Alex Ovechkin weren't so tempting a player to root for in DC, forcing me to be moderately NHL-conflicted), I'd be completely satisfied with my sports life. Best time to be a Boston fan. I hope it doesn't end anytime soon.

7. TBS is killing me. Honestly, there is a large part of me that is actually looking forward to the dulcet tones of Joe Buck and the inchorent melody of Tim McShithead butchering players' names and passing superior and irrelevant moral dictums for little apparent cause. By the way, has anyone on that station yet announced that Manny Ramirez tied the post-season homerun record in the last game? No? And what about Julio Lugo "Got him. Uh, under the tag, he's in" not-caught-stealing call? Goodbye TBS, hello shitty network!

8. My prediction of "3rd inning injury" was correct, but the "down 0-6" was wrong. Regardless, it is nice to see Fat Billy Roger Clemens tank another post-season performance and blame it on a phantom injury. The only way I would have been happier with that performance was if his elbow exploded in a bloody mess while his fat forearm went pinwheeling off into the New York night like a Skihl saw. I hate that fat fuck.

9. Joba is also fat, and it was very satisfying to see him attacked by a bunch of trash-loving gnats. Boy must smell like trash, because nobody else seemed nearlty as bothered by the bugs. Though I do hope the Yanks make the series go 5 before losing spectacularly to Sabathia and the indians in 25 innings, burning out all the arms in both bullpens, making the Sox face a worn and battered opponent.

Random Open Letter for No Apparent Reason

2007-09-21T21:57:00.000-05:00

Dear Johnny Damon,
I had your wife in the Champagne Room.

All the best,
About 900 Dudes

Just for the record:

2007-09-17T13:01:00.000-05:00

Would the media stop pretending that the Pats did something hideous, ungodly, and terrible? They got caught, they got fined, it doesn't taint their accomplishments, and get off the damn soapbox. Let's have Cowher and Jimmy Johnson talk about it:

Bill Cowher:
“The two AFC Championship games that we lost to the New England Patriots, I don’t believe this had any factor in it,” Cowher said during the pregame show. “I have too much respect for Tom Brady, for [Corey ] Dillon, for [Deion] Branch and also for Coach Belichick. I think he’s still a good coach.”

“From a coach’s perspective, trying to steal signals is part of the game. We understand that as a coach. You see walkie-talkies, tape recorders, but when you take the camera on the field, that’s just arrogance,” he said. “I think the penalty was stiff by the commissioner. I think it will be a good deterrent.”

Jimmy Johnson:
“This is exactly how I was told to do it 18 years ago by a Kansas City Chiefs scout. I tried it, but I didn’t think it helped us.”

“every team has got a file on the other team. I used to send an intern up to the opposing coach’s box after the game and go through the trash. Because after the game, what do they do? They take their game plan and their scouting reports and throw them away. My intern would get all of that stuff and put it right in the file.”

“But what irritates me is hearing some reactions from players and coaches. These players don’t know what their coaches are doing. And some of the coaches have selective amnesia because I know for a fact there were various teams doing this. That’s why the memo was sent to everybody. That doesn’t make him [Belichick] right, but a lot of teams are doing this.”

Son of a...

2007-09-15T07:52:00.000-05:00

Worst game in history. Ugh.

There should be a time-limit on games. Once they hit the 4-hour mark, the game should just end. There is no reason that a 9-inning game should leave me at the bar until 12. Particularly when your team loses. Worst game ever.

That Magic Time Of Year (Edited)

2007-09-14T12:12:00.000-05:00

With my Sox commentary pretty low this season, and the Sox-Yanks series going a long way towards defining the last 2 weeks of the season, it's time to examine the various magic numbers that will determine the Sox position in the playoffs. Keep in mind that the Sox have 15 games left at the time of this writing.

A magic number represents the combination of Sox wins and opponents losses that ensures a better seeding.

Making the Playoffs
Magic Number: 7 (currently held over Detroit)
For the Sox to make the playoffs, they must at least clinch the wild card. This means that the play of the Angels, Indians, and Yankees is somewhat irrelevant to the Sox playoff chances. As such, the only teams that could knock the Sox out of the playoffs are the Tigers, Mariners, and Blue Jays. That said, even if one of those teams goes undefeated the rest of the way, the Sox can make the post-season by going 7-8 down the stretch. The following record ensure the Sox make the playoffs:
Eliminates Toronto: 1-14
Eliminates Seattle: 6-9
Eliminates Detroit: 7-8

Winning the Division
Magic Number: 11 (currently held over the Yankees)
Obviously, a lot depends on this weekend. If the Sox sweep this weekend, the magic number will be 4, based on their winning the season series against the Yanks (thus, if they finish the season with the same record, the Sox get the division crown, essentially eliminating need for an additional win). So, if the sox win their next 7 games, they will clinch. For the Sox to eliminate the division no matter how the Yanks play after Sunday:
If Sox sweep the Yanks: 4-8 (7-8 total)
If Sox take 2: 7-5* or 6-6* (9-6 or 8-7 total)
If Sox take 1: 9-3 (10-5 total)
Sox swept: 11-1 (11-4 total)

*Please note, if the Sox are able to win 2 of the 6 games against Toronto and Tampa, they need only go 6-6 after the Yankees series, as they will have a better winning percentage than the Yanks in the AL East, giving them the division crown. Again, this assumes the Yanks win all 13 remaining games against the rest of the AL East.

Home Field Throughout the Playoffs
Magic Number: 13 (over Angels)
The Sox would have to go 13-2 to ensure HFA if the Angels won out, as the Sox 6-4 record against the Angels provides them the tie-breaker if records end up being equal.

Summing it up
The Sox need only play .500 baseball from here on out to make the playoffs even if other teams run the table. Obviously, this is unlikely to happen. As to the AL East, the Sox are still in pretty good shape as long as they avoid the sweep and the Yanks drop a few games final weeks.

For example, if the Sox take 1 from the Yanks and the Yanks go 10-3 after they leave Boston (which is still a pretty blistering pace considering their pitching) , the Sox can still go 6-6 to win the division.

The one thing that would really hurt the Sox is getting swept. If the Sox are swept, the Yanks go 10-3, then the Sox need to go 8-4 to take the division. Still very doable, but not a sure thing by any means.

2 or 3 wins this weekend means the Yanks basically need to win out their remaining games to get the division. If they finished 10-3, the Sox would clinch going 3-9 (or 1-11 if they sweep the Yanks).

Bird Scat Fever

2007-09-08T08:30:00.000-05:00

As has been chronicled here before, I get shit on a lot. More specifically, birds apparently view me as their personal toilet. So, without much surprise, my second "I can't believe a bird shat on me" of the year occured just a few short minutes ago, and it was a keeper. Man, was it a keeper.

Initially believing that I was going to get a small bruise, possibly even a welt, on my back from a fallen acorn, I asked the Resident Female if I had, in fact, been hit by what I was hoping might have been a small branch. Alas, it was not. Some bird, who apparently eats a lot of beef, decided that it needed to migrate south for the winter and unloaded all remnants of his internal organs in one go, hoping that being hollow might make the journey south marginally easier. As the mass of bird dung circled through the air, clinging itself into a tighter and tighter ball, the Resident Female and I managed to walk underneath the descending shitball and place my shoulder underneath the scat. With a mighty sound, it connected. That turned out to be the end of our walk. Fortunately, the bird waited a split second to unleash the contents of its insides, as a direct hit to the top of my head very well might have caused a concussion.

Okay, all hyperbole aside, I hate fucking birds. Most people remember every time they have been shat on by a bird because it has only happened to them once or twice. Not me. I've been shat on so many times that I've lost count. I seem to be averaging about 2 a year since I moved to DC in '03, and I am probably in the 14-16 range for my life. Off the top of my head, here are some of the more memorable ones:

Disney World ("the happiest place on earth" my ass)
My first date, by a seagull (that's a big turn on)
On the way to a job interview
On the way to congressional testimony (note: not me testifying)
Twice in one day in 04 (morning and evening shots)
Walking with the Resident Female in Georgetown, with her getting some splatter
In the 1st mile of a road race, on the cheek.

Really.

I hate birds.

Addendum 2

2007-08-30T14:47:00.001-05:00

So my asshat of a boss is fucking killing me. He knew this was my last day. He knew I usually leave early since I get here about the same time that the doors open. He knew I needed my check today so that I can actually pay my mortgage. He knew that it matters a lot today because I have to get across the city and on a freaking bus to pick up my car by 5:45 tonight, including changing metro lines. He told me he would be here at 2:30. He just called and told me he is running late. At 3:50. No shit, you fucking piece of crap! You get here, you get here now, and you get me my fucking check, you squirmy ass-fuck! You have to pay your employees on time and are not allowed to fucked up their schedule because you are a dopey fuck! I can't leave the damn building until you get here because I don't have a badge to get out anymore! I am literally trapped in this god-awful building because you can't bother to come to work until 4 in the after-fucking-noon! FUCK!

And I hate the fucking Yankees. All we needed from this weekend was 1 win. 1 win and the AL east race is over. FUCK! I hate JD Drew. I hate him. I've tried to defend him, I've tried to be optimistic, I've tried to think he would balance it all out, I've tried to hope he might actually turn it around, but he sucks. He sucks, his mother sucks, and anyone that looks like him sucks. When was his last RBI in a close game? June? May? JD Drew is the captain of our All-Suck offense. Christ, where is this asshat with my check?

Addendum

2007-08-30T11:21:00.001-05:00

Well, just to re-emphasize the last post, the cock-sucking furry little snot just called me up and informed me that the additional fixes that he was telling me about are actually $110 higher than before, because he "forgot" that the prices he looked up where for "each" instead of the pair together. So, after about a 15 minute yelling match where I said I didn't agree to the higher price for the work and I would like it stopped, he told me it wasn't an option because the work had already been done, he "knocked off" $30 off of the labor. So that was an $80 phone call.

Oh, and I forgot to mention that Verizon just upped our prices for cable and internet despite the fixed term fixed price promotion from when we signed up. I'm excited for the myriad of phone calls to fix that one. If I didn't need internet at home, I'd broom this crap right now. Still better than Comcast, though.

It looks like I'm giving up shaving, because razor cartridges are about the only thing left in my budget that can be bid down. Sigh. It will be fun walking home from school to avoid the metro fares.

Frustrated as Hell

2007-08-30T09:00:00.000-05:00

While the title of the post very easily could describe the experience as a Red Sox fan the last two days, watching a ball bounce 14 times before dribbling out of the infield to get the bases juiced after a freshly-squeezed umpire walk allows Damon to drive in a couple runs, this is not about baseball. For that, go here. This post is, by and large, a rant.

Yes, a rant. I have a rant. I have a rant, and it is in my pant(s). This one has to deal with money. To be specific, it has to do with my money. I hold myself of the opinion that I am good with money. I'm not the best, but at least I am organized about it. I pay all my bills as they come in. I put money away in savings. I invest. While I may fork out too much in tips and rounds of drinks for my friends, it all comes out of my amorphous "discretionary" account, which essentially forces me to ration out fun over a month instead of money. I have no debt, as I have effectively paid off my student loans (with a few monthly CDs maturing around the payment dates covering the remaining payments). I would like to think that I am at least in the upper quartile when it comes to dealing with money.

So what the fuck?!? How on Earth is it freaking possible that every couple weeks I keep getting whacked with unexpected expenses, each being a couple thousand a piece? Seriously, what the hell?

First, there's the broken ankle. A craptastic turn of events that bled through most of my emergency savings because the goddamn metro can't keep its escalators working, but can operate their claims department well enough to stonewall me from medical expenses. Fantastic. With the student health insurance having all the convenience of an HMO with all the payment savings of an indemnity plan, and a monthly stipend from school being the financial equivalent of lunch of a packet of saltines and a playing card smeared with peanut, that was pretty rocky for a while. I ended up bailing early on physical therapy and a pain prescription refill to stay bouyant. Oh, and my health insurance company recouped cost from the metro, without a dime headed back to me for my copays, including the $1500 out of pocket for the CT scans.

Second, my dingleberry-scented douchebag of a boss from last summer finally sends me my tax info and shows me that the son of a bitch never paid my payroll taxes, despite assuring me TWICE last summer that he was doing so. Great. Now I can either sue him in small claims for misrepresentation and lose because I don't have anything explicitly in writing besides a vague email (stupid of me), or I can actually work for him again this summer while he steals money from the government that is meant to pay my payroll taxes but instead lards his "cut" of my working hours. And hopefully I can get my check on my last day (today) instead of last year when it took 2 trips to the place and a call to his supervisor to finally bleed my check out of him after an 8-week battle. "Yeah, I mailed it to the wrong address, then was surprised when it came back to me as undeliverable, and I didn't bother calling you or checking the email you sent me to ensure I actually wrote the wrong address on the envelope." I really hope I can find alternative funding next summer so that I don't end up with a surprise 2 grand tax bill out of nowhere again. And I hope this sumbitches privates rot off.

Third, a new place. I didn't sign on for this crap. Carpet, twice as expensive as advertized. HVACs break just before we move in. New furniture because the old stuff suddenly doesn't look right. New bed, despite the agreement that we could afford it (So we finance it, YAY!). While I should have seen this coming, I didn't. Especially the HVACs. Who knew that replacing ones from 1958 would be nearly 3 times as costly as ones for newer buildings? $6500, seriously? Oh, right, and we have a list of 10 items of furniture that the Resident Female and I decided we needed for the place that we are holding off on for a while.

Fourth, car. I think I'll just take my car in for the 120,000 mile tune-up that the manufacturer recommends. Yeah, a tune-up, that sounds cheap, right? Like $100, maybe $200? $700! $700! You fuckers, how is that fair?!? Oh, and of course, you find 70 or 80 things wrong that jack that bill up to $1800. And you only tell me after I've already paid the $700, so that money is already "baked in the cake", as it were. Why is it that every single person I have ever met that deals with cars is a full-of-shit charlatan, scum-ridden, syphillis-scarred trouser-stain that lacks even the remotest conceptual understanding of honesty and human decency? Seriously, when has a car company, car salesman, car repairman, mechanic, or car-wash ever been even partially honest? There has got to be a way to slowly eviscerate and throttle all of these rectum-sucking low-lives so that we never have to deal with them again. And fuck you if you were about to say, "Well, you could always buy a Saturn".

Speaking of people that ought to die screaming in agony as they plead in vain for their mommies: anyone to do with the wedding industry. Holy fuck. It is as if the word "wedding" in the description of a product suddenly implies a $200 surcharge. Is the word "wedding" that expensive to print on paper? Where do these damn people get off by even suggesting these prices? Why do rational and sane people agree to pay for this crap? (note: because their future wives tell them to). I've seen this stuff in the stores and online with certain prices attached. Yet they end up in the wedding registry, or a deposit goes down, or a check gets issued, and suddenly there is an automatic $200 fee for wedding stuff. "Hey, let's get those disposable cameras to put on the tables at the wedding." "Great idea, these with the cardboard cover over the camera that has an elaborately printed color scheme are $10 a piece, and these with the same exact kind of cardboard but with wedding graphics are $110 a piece." That seems fair. This country has lost its mind when it comes to wedding prices, has a massive problem with consumer debt, and extremely high divorce rates. Somebody should write that down, it might be important later.

So, why do I bitch and rant about all these things that nobody probably wants to hear about? I wanted to point out that your humble narrator has had more money in "one-time" expenses (not even counting planned things like an engagement ring) pop up in the last year than he has been paid in his living stipend in his 2 years of graduate school. Seriously, two years income is less than one year's "Hello!" expenses. Another $1800 bill today for a fucking car, and a "surprise! I have credit card debt despite you bailing me out a few months ago" revelation from the Resident Female, and I'm a little less than chipper when it comes to finances at the moment Oh, and I need to go get new loafers and a new belt, because apparently my sense of fashion is horrendous and my wardrobe is outdated. Sweet. So today is another $2000 day for me.

SO, anyone know where I can sell a black-market kidney?

Throw-away joke for a Monday morning

2007-08-27T06:03:00.001-05:00

What do you call a well-dressed economist?

Dashingly dismal.

Healing

2007-08-21T09:04:00.000-05:00

Well, the bachelor party has come and gone, my liver has migrated south for the winter, and I managed to survive the trials and trivails of a weekend amongst friends. A good time was had by all, though at one point a "bitch-be-cool" was doled out in the Hotel hallway as a drunken blonde couldn't stop grabbing me. He had it coming.

As to me, it looks like I am settling back into the normal routine of boring life, praying for the end of the summer to get away from this god-forsaken project that is nearing completion and once again immersing myself into the satisfying and completely important world of teaching Freshman my "stuff" theory of economics. While the 50% cut in pay will certainly sting, the 400% increase in unstructured time will also be nice (for about a month).

Then, the day of bethrothal will arrive and all the planning and spending will theoretically end. Sweet.

Food for Thought

2007-08-15T07:30:00.001-05:00

Nebulous and pleonastic obfuscation preserves the illusion of profundity amidst the mental plebians. Thoughts?

The Continuing Adventures of A. Sean Feddish

2007-08-14T09:12:00.001-05:00

Our favorite Itinerant Jew, A. Sean Feddish, was back stateside recently, and the Resident Female and I were able to pry him away from family and friends long enough to spend a weekend in the most powerful swamp in the world (note: DC). While the stated mission of our occasional meetings generally involves collecting outrageous stories for the sake of having them to tell, this time we decided that relaxation would be the appropriate salve for all of our mental healths. As such, after a reunion in the bathroom at Union Station (seriously) and a few choice DC happy hours, we set about our business of doing slightly more than nothing.

While those faithful readers familiar with our beloved Feddish tales may have a level of disappointment at our inability to generate freakish and odd anecdotes, please understand that the chances of replicating the last trip to the greater Washington area would be wholly futile. I mean, there is no possibility of ever topping The Life and Times of ChristGirl, sleeping in a bathtub, and switching languages on tourists within the same 24 hour period. Remember, I am getting married.

With that in mind, there is also a soon-to-be-coming-out competition in the world of weblogs, as AOL will soon be launching a Japan-themed weblog written by our very own A. Sean Feddish. I know, I know, who would have thought that there would actually end up being 2 weblogs on the internet. I'm as shocked as you. However, look for a link forthcoming, where he will regail you with stories of Used-Panty-Vending-Machines in the Tokyo subway, salt-less treks through the Darien Gap, and Turks & Caicos on $1.50 a day.

Potentially offensive garbage

2007-08-13T06:48:00.001-05:00

We all know about the rappers/actors Ice Cube and Ice Tea. Here are a few of their lesser known compatriots:

The rapping triplets: Ice Trey

The rapping Jew: Ice Berg

The rapping ho: Ice Box

Okay, not buying it? Here's a picture:

Called it!

2007-08-10T08:56:00.000-05:00

In an effort to fully document every time that I have been correct in some argument, I present this story as evidence. A few years ago, during the Sammy Sosa corked bat fiasco, I engaged in a lengthy and surprising angry discussion with a lets-keep-him-nameless friend about the actual merits of a corked bat (which is to say there are very few). I then proceeded to suggest that Bonds' (and others') armor actually are more of a cheat than a corked bat, citing both the "skater"/inside pitch argument and the plane of the elbow/pop-fly argument that this guy does. Granted, this is more in depth and a little bit more scientufuc than my arguments, but pretty neat all the same. Regardless, thank you Mr. Pierce for my high-school physics class senior year that spent an entire month on the physics of baseball.

Just a quick rehash of the corked bat thing: the decrease in weight (and thus the ability to transfer kinetic energy from bat to ball) almost perfectly negates the added angular moment gained by a faster swing. To whit, the increased bat speed does not improve the power because the bat is less dense and lighter. So a corked bat doesn't really help the hitter's power numbers. However, since it swings through the zone faster, it might create better contact numbers for the hitter (assuming he can maintain his natural timing).

Things to do...

2007-08-02T10:10:00.000-05:00

1) I'm taking a rare relaxing off day today, as my new HVAC units are being installed as I type this. With the never ending string of full weekends (4 in a row, and another 4 coming), it is extremely nice to just have a few minutes to kick back, relax, and actually sink low into the couch. It's been a while. So, until my next day of minimal effort (other than cleaning) on Labor Day weekend, I'm writing to you.

2) As a side note, those of you who think it was clever of me to schedule the installation on a weekday with a Sox day game, well, you know me too well.

3) This summer, I've spent most of my time at work listening to audio books on my iPod, and I just listened to the entire Harry Potter series (it only took about 9 weeks of constant listening). I've got to say, while I'm not about to run out and by a cape and start reffering to people as muggles (other than in this sentence), I was pretty pleased with the whole thing. I was afraid that, like the Stephen King Dark Tower series, the 7 book lead-up would end with an unbelievably unsatisfying ending. However, I thought the 7th book was actually very good. Slightly repetitive, ended a little too cutely, but overall I was very satisfied.

4) Patriots camp started on the same day I got the new Football Prospectus. Still a fantasticly interesting read, year in and year out. If you like football, it really is the best thing to get me in the mood for the season. If you want to buy a copy, find the link to the right.

Sweetness

2007-08-01T07:34:00.000-05:00

Gagne for detritus? Very nice. I'll take it. The Sox just added a 3rd impact arm for what equates to 1 of 3 4th outfielder options, a #5 starter with #4 upside (though he was obviously pitching admirably, as new left-handers are want to do), and a guy that was 4 years+ away from the majors. In exchange, the Sox have a strong bullpen, one not disimilar from Foulke, Timlin, Embree of '04 (when those 3 names were good). Papelbon, Gagne, Okajima. Hopefully, Schilling comes back with a vengence such that our playoff opponants only see:

Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Lester
Papelbon, Gagne, Okajima, Delcarmen

Followed by a string of zeroes.

Thank you

2007-07-30T14:21:00.001-05:00

I always thought that the numbers on credit card debt were skewed, and here is evidence thereoff. Well put.

As I've always said, to those who are stat based:

The curse of those who make conclusions because they understand the mean is that they often often do not understand the variance.

Then again, you could make a pretty good argument that I'm neglecting the Kurtosis of the issue...

This might sting a little bit

2007-07-26T07:05:00.001-05:00

1. In the long-running HVAC drama/saga/epic/lyric poem that has gone on since moving into the new condo, yesterday represented what I hope is the turning point. We were finally able to track down a company in Maryland that actually specializes in older buildings, and they seem supremely confident that they will be able to help us out and a reasonable price. As an added bonus, the guy that came out to look at the units between 8-10 AM got stuck in traffic on 495, meaning he didn't show up until 11:45 (methinks he was trying to get there exactly at 10). So, really, when you think about it, it wasn't worth going into work at that point, right? Granted, I'm paid by the hour, so I don't really get paid for yesterday, but whatever. A much needed day off was still had.

2. Marriage camp. That is what I'm doing this weekend. Marriage camp. Friday night, Saturday from 9 AM - 6 PM, Sunday from 9 AM - 4 PM. Marriage camp. The jackass at the Resident Female's church (whom she has referred to as such; we wanted the other guy) has insisted we attend marriage camp this weekend. I knew there was a reason I was agnostic...

3. On the personal milestone side of things, the attempt to return my ankle to shape is starting to work. In the 4th attempt at taking a decent length run, I was able to squeeze my 2.5-mile time down beneath 20 minutes, roughly matching my top "distance" speed from high school (though, obviously, not the top distance, which was 6 miles in about 45 minutes). Okay, so maybe not match the times, but at least get within striking distance of the 7.5 minute miles I used to get. Under 8 is a start, right? And an even more pleasant surprise is that the ankle feels pretty good today.

Things were good when we were young...

2007-07-23T08:35:00.000-05:00

For no particular reason, C'mon C'mon (of Rescue Me fame) is playing on the ol' iPod, so let's get cracking.

This past weekend saw the Resident Female and I trek up to Little Rhody for a an extended 4-day weekend, culminating with a "regional" cocktail engagement party. In reality, this was a training weekend, one in which I honed and polished my ability to repeat the same phrases, anecdotes, and cute personal summations of recent developments in my life. I accomplished this by repeating the exact same thing over and over to a constant barrage of handshakes and cheek-kiss half-hugs. Meanwhile, the Resident Female was inundated by a steady stream of Waspy names with even Waspier faces (note: not Waspy in the "popped collars and trophy wives" kind of way, but rather the "Be unhappy with the one you've got and drink too many Gin and Tonics" kind of way). Despite the potential for several massive faux pass (faux pas'?), it would appear the only mistake I made the entire night was that of sweating heavily. Further, I was spared the dubious distinction of being named the most out-of-place person there by another uninitiated girl-friend of a guest arriving dressed like a cross between a pageant runner-up and a Barbi doll. All in all, now a good time.

There is a fine line between fun-loving and alcoholism, but from this side it sometimes looks like two lines

2007-07-18T07:21:00.000-05:00

Thoughts, defects, and short-comings:

For those who have enjoyed the recent run-up in the stock market of late, the next couple days would be an excellent time to rebalance your portfolios. While I have no particular gut feeling about the market one way or the other (except maybe a mini-bubble trying to get the Blue Chips over 14k), my portfolio is pretty far out of whack from the last six months. My 80/20 stock bond mix that was balance on January 2 is currently sitting at 86/14. My more aggressive retirement accounts are at 92/8 (from 85/15). So today is the day.

Also, in case you are interested in a little financial porn, I've discovered a website called prosper.com which is a peer to peer lending site. If you want $25 free dollars to lend (and a nice $25 kickback referral for me), click on the link to the right and sign up. So, if you want to make 1 loan, you just need $25 net (you have to make a loan before you get the $25, unfortunately). If anyone actually wants to hear a budding game theorists take on proper bidding strategies and risk-weights, please leave a comment in the comment section and I will do a post about the stuff. Otherwise, I won't bore you beyond the fact that it is essentially my "seedy-motel on a business trip" component to my otherwise "happy marriage" portfolio of stocks and bonds .

The maddeningly-consistent inconsistency of my .500 Red Sox is starting to get to me. With a 7 game lead in the Loss column over the Yankees (half of the seasons high-water mark), I'll admit that I'm starting to get a little antsy. While a team with excellent pitching, high OBP, 3 excellent relievers, an easy schedule, and a still good-sized lead is nothing to sneeze at, I am starting to get a little frustrated that the balls are not falling when they should. I know that a lot of it at this point is luck (we keep getting on base, just not getting home, which forecasts well for the future), I am having trouble keeping faith by repeating to myself "statistically, we're better than this". Grrr.

As to the Sox, I am of the mind that when Schilling comes back Tavarez should go to the bullpend regardless of his next couple games. While he has done a much better than expected job in the 5th spot, I would rather see Gabbard get a go. Tavarez is about a start away from matching last year's innings total, and his splits the 2nd and 3rd time through the order are pretty indicative of a guy that should be in the bullpen. I say give Gabbard a shot; he won't light the world on fire like he did two nights ago, but his Jamie Moyer-like repetoire should play well in the 5th spot. If he fails, switch lefties and go with Lester. Or Buchholz, in about six weeks.

As to a Sox-related rumor: Wily Mo Pena straight up for Dotel. Love it. While I don't think Dotel is particularly excellent, I think he is probably more reliable at this point than Piniero or Timlin. Plus, Pena is a waste of a roster spot at this point. While I had very high hopes for Wily Mo, I just don't see him developing in Boston to the point where he is good enough for us. So, if we can get anything in return for him, we should take it. Then bring up Murphy or Moss to replace him on the roster until AAA season closes, then swap in Ellsbury as the 4th outfield for September/playoffs. Win/win organizationally, and possibly finding a strong 4th reliever would make this pitching staff pretty damn formidable (assuming Schill is effective upon his return). Of course, we would need to move either Timlin or Piniero (or Snyder), which might bring back a C+ prospect, too, but really anything at all would be a bonus.

I am opposed to picketting, but I don't know how to show it

2007-07-16T11:46:00.001-05:00

At the very end of the article, when King is talking about Leinart, he mentions that he had a -1 TD/interception ratio. Could somebody please explain to this jackass the definition of ratio? As best as I can understand it, this would seem to me that Leinart played some spectacular defensive back, because that is the only way a QB might be able to get a negative interception...

I Am Legend

2007-07-12T07:13:00.000-05:00

After a stressful and extended wait, I finally heard. I passed my Public Finance field exam. That's right. I officially completed the gauntlet: 4 Comprehensive exams in 9 months. From the day I sat for the Micro on the morning of September 13th up to the moment I left the Public Finance exam on the sunny afternoon of May 16th, I did nothing but study. Oh, and I broke my ankle, got engaged, planned a wedding, bought a condo, and beat off a lot. Regardless, they are done early, my Independant Study course is now approved, meaning my thesis research is officially underway, and I just need to skate by with 4 Bs in my upcoming classes to get my M.Phil, and hopefully I can bang out my thesis from the research topics in my IS this fall. Neat. My ambitious goal to crank out my Ph.D in three and a half years is still a possibility, more in reach than ever, I suppose (though I still expect it to be 4 years, for what it's worth).

Note: I do not mean this to sound like bragging or gloating, but rather just want to express that I feel so incredibly relieved. The saga of getting my results were longer than any of the other field exams, unfortunately. Those who took other exams on the same day had all heard back several weeks ago. In most cases, their respective professors had encouraged them to take the exams and offered support of their efforts and had other students to study with, whereas I was told by my prof that he did not think any of the students were poised to do well with the relatively short turn-around time between the semester and the exam (note: 1 day). Since I was the only one taking it, each passing day made me more and more paranoid, questioning whether being the only one taking the test was working against me as having no basis for comparison on the results, remembering each little mistake, fearing that the burn-out of a year jamming my brain with every and anything I could cram in there took its toll. By the time the sign-up form for the fall round of field exams found my inbox, still not having heard my results, panic really started to take its tithe. In fact, just putting the experience into words made my stomach drop, my shoulders tighten, and my fight-or-flight response kick in. For those of you that know me, especially how I tend not to worry about these things, you can see that I was freaking out. Hence the relief. Thank God.

Also Note: Title of the post is a reference, in case nobody picked it up. Suppossed to be a cool book that I probably should have read as a dorky teenager, and it now is being turned into a movie (for the 3rd time) with Will Smith as Vincent Price/Charlton Heston (i.e. the human).

Coffee time!

DL David

2007-07-11T10:37:00.000-05:00

There has been a lot of speculation bandying about that Ortiz is injured, including a statement by The Man, The Myth, The Human Cookie Monster, The Human Stitch, that he might need offseason surgery, and that it is these injuries that are causing him to have his power outage. While I think our offense (already struggling to score runs) would take a hit if Ortiz was on the DL, am I the only person anywhere who thinks it might be a good idea to DL David now, with a 10 game lead and 3 months to the playoffs, rather than have him play through it? Seriously, if he is unable to hit for power because of the injury, he isn't a legit #3 until he is healthy. With a pretty decent lead, let him take 15 days to heal up and get back. If 15 days won't do it, then scope him now so that he is back by the playoffs. The only reason he shouldn't be DLed is if correcting the problem would mean he is out for the year, in which case I would wonder how he will be able to make it through the whole season healthy anyhow.

Getting Ortiz healthy on the DL could also help the rest of the team out, too. With Ortiz resting, we have 2+ weeks of Wily Mo Pena and Manny splitting up LF and DH, allowing Manny to get some rest on his knees and Wily Mo the playing time that he desperately needs to develop.

This, of course, leads to the interesting result of seeing whether Wily Mo will be a good everyday player, as the bench thing seems to not be working. If Wily Mo starts to capitalize on the playing time and finally developing into the type of hitter we want, great: either we have another power hitter on our roster that will help our team moving forward or a plus trading chip to move at the deadline or in the offseason (or even trading Manny with his 1 year left in the offseason with Wily Mo as the permanant LF moving forward). If he falls flat on his face, well, at least then we'd know that it makes sense to cut bait with him and move on. The team obviously doesn't think much of him in center (see the Murphy/Ellsbury call-ups), so this is perhaps an opportunity to accurately gauge what we might be able to do in the future. The lead (and the pitching) allows the Sox the luxury of resting up a star for the stretch run and measuring potential simultaneously.

Please note, my advocation of this course of action is dependant on the idea that rest will actually help Ortiz return to form this season. Potential "no-Ortiz" lineup:

Pedroia
Drew
Youk
Manny
Lowell
Pena
Crisp
Varitek
Lugo

A little righthanded, and a little lacking in pop (maybe switch Lowell and Pena). I also wouldn't have a problem with Crisp as a leadoff to get a switch-hitter at the top, though I do like my speed to come after the heavy hitters as their speed is more useful if the guys behind them are less likely to get a hit or hit for power (i.e. less likely to be driven in from 1st).

Happy "Fuck English Taxes" Day!

2007-07-04T12:28:00.000-05:00

I hope everyone is enjoying the birth of our country today, eating lots of charred meat, soaking in the sun, and possibly blowing up a small portion of the country with illegal fireworks meant to symbolically recreating us beating the crap out of the red coats. It is in that vein that I plan to go up to the pool at our condo dressed like an Indian and throwing in every tea-bag I can find. I then plan to hop on a stolen Vespa and drive through Arlington knocking on every door I can find screaming, "The Red Coats are coming". Unless somebody else beats me to the idea, in which case, what's the point.

Random Thoughs on Everything

2007-06-20T09:01:00.000-05:00

Been a while, I know, but life has a way of getting put in front of anonymous maniacal ravings on the internet. I offer a random assortment of points:

1) Two weddings in 3 days for me. I am taking a flight this afternoon for California to see my cousin Leatherneck Larry get married tomorrow, flying back to DC on Friday (saturday morning) at BWI at 1 in the AM, then driving up to Philly on Saturday to see my college roommate take the plunge. These will be the 2nd and 3rd wedding I will be attending this year, plus another 2 of my friends are scheduled to get married in September, not to mention my own wedding (though it is of note that Randy McCheckingline is getting married on the same day as me, so I won' be attending that one). Many people often note that it seems weddings come in bunches, with groups of friends and similarly aged people all seem to marry in quick succession. My theory: signalling. Do you feel like an adult? Was there one day where you went to sleep as a kid and woke up the next morning as an adult? No, not really. Your self perception moves slowly, and the level of maturity is never easily defined. Mentally, there is no clear demarcation between "just a kid" or "having fun in my 20s" and "time to settle down for the rest of my life". It is a big leap to make that generally is not part of the normal run of the day for most people, so there is no movement towards "time to get married" or "time to buy a house" or "time to stop hiring hookers off the internet". So, with that in mind, it really ends up being that the average person (read: man) doesn't seriously consider these things until he sees somebody in his social circle do the thing. To wit: it isn't that men are afraid of commitment, it's that there is no line between "we've been together for awhile" and "we're going to be together forever".

2) Despite some scuffling recently, the Sox are still +8 in the loss column against the Yanks and +2 for homefield. Schilling just got good news from the doctor, so hopefully he'll right himself. Plus, we have Gabbard and Lester both about major league ready sitting at AAA. Coco and Drew are showing signs of life, Tak and Lowell aren't, and Lugo looks like an AIDS patient, but I still like the team. Fun.

3) I am enjoying the Patriots off-season. It seems to me that there was a line of thought organizationally of the likes, "we haven't won in 2 years, we were 2 minutes away from taking it last year, and we probably should have won it if it weren't for the freaking lack of depth cropping up at a few positions. Fuck it. We're getting Thomas, Moss, and about a dozen other guys." And I'm glad for it. I figure Brady only has another 2-4 years of legitimate "prime" before he moves into the "really good veteran". Seriously, he is turning 30 this year. So, the Pats just decided to get everyone they want.

4) Speaking of Moss, how did we pull this one off? We got him for a lower draft pick than we got Duane Starks, and we are paying him less for this year than about 4 dozen other receivers. I'll take it.

5) So my new condo has two HVAC units from 1958, one of only 4 units in the building that didn't replace them a few years ago when they ordered replacements in bulk. Now, to replace these, the best quote I've gotten so far is $4,800 for the pair. If it weren't for the fact that we managed to absolutely pilfer the place from the old owner, I'd be absolutely livid at the last owner.

6) Speaking of which, we are still shocked at how poorly this place was marketed. In the DC metro area, there are still 2 areas of the housing market that are hopping: Arlington on the Orange line and the $250k-$400K price range. Yet we got a place with low condo fees (which include ALL utilities), a pool, and a private entrance for below asking price and with the other guy picking up closing costs. The reason? Well, those three key selling points I just listed were absolutely buried in the listing with horrid pictures that made the place look like it had 6' ceilings (actually 9'). Truth be told, I put it on our "to look at" list so that the Resident Female would understand why we weren't even going to bother looking at the lower end of that price range, as it was all crap places. Turns out, it was a place we instantly fell in love with (or, actually, we fell in love with by replacing the carpets and repainting the baseboards). Now, we love it. Regardless, 2 months later, we still can't believe we got it for the price we did, faulty HVAC units be damned.

7) Started work already, and I forgot how truly boring the company is. I'm stuck in a cube generating stationarity data for 9 hours a day with hyper-restricted internet access. Wow. (Please note, I am not there today). I effectively have no boss, either, which means I don't have anyone to ask my questions to. Well, at least the pay is good.

8) As for school, still no word on the field exam, though a buddy who took it on the same day passed (different field, though). Here's to hoping that my month of 12 hour days paid off. Based on my performance on the prior 3 tests, all I need is a bare pass. Keep your fingers crossed for me.

9) Also for school, I randomly got a letter telling me I was getting a raise next year on the same day I got a letter telling me I had to fill out a "complaint response" form. That was ironic.

10) Maybe my college just didn't do much of it, but I don't remember us having kids with disabilities get the university to lay down at their altar and doing whatever they can for these kids. Look, I appreciate some kids need a little extra help. No problem with that. But how is it possible that about 1/6th of my students get extra time, and can lodge complaints against me that I put "extra time pressure" on them by insisting they turn in their exams at the time they are suppossed to? I actually gave a girl who had time and a half exemption closer to 2x, and I finally had to take the exam off her desk. So what happens? Pissed off, she tramps out the door straight to disable student services and lodges a formal complaint against me. While nothing came of it, I (and my professor) still had to fill out a bunch of paperwork and undergo an interview to say, "look, she sucks and was mad that she bombed the exam". I hate students.

11) Another terrible student story. Rachael (yes, that is how she spells it. Or she is so dislexic that she can't spell her name correctly). She forgets to set up the extra time for the final, shows up halfway through it claiming she though it was at 3 PM instead of 10 AM. We take pity and let her take it in the department. She fails brutally (38%). She complains to the professor saying "I didn't know the time, so I didn't take my Aderol." Whatever. Rather than cause problems, we let her retake the other version of the exam. She gets a solid D. Last week, which is about 4 weeks after the semester end and 3 weeks after grades have come up, she sends me an email bitching about her grade, asking if there is any way we can turn her class grade of a D to a C-. What? Fuck you, seriously? You don't think we calculated your grade correctly? You had 1 grade above a C- all semester and you want us to change your grade? Go away.

12) This semester was a terrible one, student wise, across the board. I have about a dozen similar stories to the one above (though not as offensively stupid), and apparently this was the case across the board for other TAs and Professors. I fear for the future of my school.

13) I still don't understand NASCAR at all.

14) As for me, I actually somehow managed to pull out my best semester grades-wise, despite bookend the semester with 2 field exams. So that was a surprise, especially considering I completely bombed one of the finals. Apparently, everyone else did as well (saved by the curve...).

15) Alright, I'm almost ready to admit it. Almost. The NHL is almost irrelevant. But not quite.

16) I still don't get the NBA, either.

17) I hate celebrities that try to tell society how to function, and I think it is high irony when they do. Celebrities, whether they be sports heroes, actors, or rock stars, are economically supported by the rest of society. They are a by-product of society's wealth and success. Their riches and status come from the money that everyday people provide for entertainment and non-essential consumption products. Ever notice how countries with subsistance farming tend to have fewer movie stars? Forget the fact that most of them wouldn't understand a hard day's work if they tripped over and were anally penetrated by it, but they are the economic frosting on the cake of our production ability. So, I find it very obnoxious when one of them says, "Thanks for all the money and power you all have afforded me so that I don't have to live you meager and hard existence and instead get to pretend all day to be somebody else in front of a camer, but I am shocked and appalled that you haven't changed your lives and thrown more of your hard-earned money at this social cause. Quite frankly, I'm disappointed in you." Fuck them.

18) Please note, that last point isn't suggesting that there aren't celebrities that do good, or have a real effect on the world, or advocate good causes. Quite the opposite. But really, what I want these people to realize is that just because they get paid a lot to pretend doesn't mean they understand how to efficiently allocate our resources in society and determine where and how much aid goes to certain causes. I'm still waiting for an actor or actress to come out and say "I want 30% of all revenue from ticket sales, and every cent of it is going to this charity". I know they do charitable work, but if they really meant it they could just live off the average salary of an american and put the rest of their chips into the political causes they feel strongly about. Hell, even double that dollar amount to live on. But they don't, so I say they are obnoxious sychophants that provide a marginal boon to society, and most are easily replaced on the margin.

19) The Economist is the best magazine ever. Smartest decision I ever made was getting the subsciptions. I've never enjoyed my poops more.

20) I wanted to get one post for every day I missed, but alas, it does not seem to be in the cards. I need to go catch a plane. Hopefully will be back early next week.

Would that it were

2007-05-22T16:58:00.001-05:00

Dorf said...
Heh. Fletcher finishes his exams, goes boozing, then is MIA for a week. Suspicious.

Yes, but not quite. Unfortunately, the weeks with my head down and doing nothing but schoolwork unfortunately created one hell of a to-do list. So, I've been:

Moving (still in process)
Buying Furniture
Buying a bed
Buying sheets (unbelievably expensive, by the way)
Getting a badge for my summer job
Prepping a speech for a potential thesis topic
Masturbating

As you can see, this is making a good bit of time off my hands.

Also of note, I'm glad to see the government is still being judicious. I had my badge request denied because:
1) In my 5 year history of housing, I only put down places to June 2002 (which is 5 years from when I start)
2) I didn't list my employment status before May 2003, even though the section came right after education
Sigh...

Done!

2007-05-16T14:46:00.000-05:00

Now, where's the closest bar?

26:04

2007-05-15T05:57:00.000-05:00

Test time is coming. My last full day of cramming has arrived, and boy howdy, I am ready for this crap to be over.

And 2 great Sox games the past 2 days. One surprise win and one dominant win. What more do you need?

File this one under "stranger than fiction"

2007-05-10T07:06:00.000-05:00

Wow

This really helped with my studying

2007-05-08T16:02:00.001-05:00

Jose does it again.

Oddly, this was already in my auto-text...

2007-05-07T06:02:00.000-05:00

Just thought, in honor of the day, I would bust out a quotation from 2003:

"At least he is where he always belonged. Clemens is arrogant, talented, rich, less than honest, self-absorbed and for the most part, overwhelmingly successful. A born Yankee, really."
-Chad Finn

Honestly, I can see an upside to this. I mean, sure, I will miss the opportunity for seeing the Yankees trot out a seemingly endless string of minor-league never-will-bes, and Roger will be much better for their bullpen pretty much by default, but there are some pluses:

1. The douche is in his mid-forties, so hopefully that means a part of his fat-ass body will detach mid-pitch and go spiralling into the air like a fucking skill saw. I'd would bookmark that page on youtube.

2. For all this, "it's amazing he is still doing it" crap, we'll see if he actually was that good in Houston, or if the National League Paper Tiger ERAs can really stand up in the AL East. Maybe he'll just be like Randy Johnson was as a Yankee: just a really ugly millionaire who puts up 4th starter numbers.

3. I don't need to suffer the cognitive dissonance of trying to like the used ball-bag of a human being that he is. I was always a little afraid he would come to the Sox and I'd have to pretend like I liked him.

4. While it is always scary facing one of the best right-handers alive in a big game 7, going by historical precident the Sox should be okay if we can match him up with a quality pitcher like Schilling, Beckett, or Jeff Fucking Suppan.

5. I can't wait until he throws a crappy outing and blames it on his hamstring, his wife liking the shopping in New York, his retirement, his anger that Coco Crisp isn't spelled Koko Krisp, or the fact that he hates Jon Lester because his ready-made excuse for his next post-season failure was going to be that he had anaplastic large cell lymphoma.

Fuck Clemens. Fuck him right in the ear.

I love this quote...

2007-05-06T08:19:00.000-05:00

Speculation? (Quote from the bottom of the page)

"There's a fair chance Boston's Manny Ramirez will find himself on the wrong end of an inside fastball next time the teams meet. The Mariners didn't appreciate his over-the-top celebration, throwing his helmet into the air and raising his arm while rounding the bases, after hitting the go-ahead homer in the eighth inning Thursday night. There was speculation, however, that Ramirez was confused about what inning it was and thought he'd hit a walk-off game winner."

Just the fact that this possibility is on the table makes me strangely happy...

Edit:

By possibility, I of course mean that Manny wasn't sure of the inning, not that he might get brushed back.

Emailed to the Resident Female

2007-04-30T20:54:00.000-05:00

*Bridesmaid’s Contract*
Hello my beautiful bridesmaids! Let me just say again how happy I am that you are going to be a part of my special day! Below are just a few guidelines for the wedding that I’d like you to review, please initial by each point, sign at the end and send back to me. Just want to make sure they’re aren’t any surprises! The planning bride is a happy bride!
Thanks a bunch! Love ya!
-Katie
______ My hair will remain at the length it is now or longer.
______ I will not change my hair color without first consulting Katie and providing a sample photo or hair swatch for consideration.
______ I will use Sally Hansen’s “Maximum Growth-Daily Nail Growth program” every day for the 4 months before the wedding day.
______ I will not gain more than 4lbs from the weight I was when I was asked to be a bridesmaid.
______ I swear to attend all showers, (lingerie, bridal & bachelorette) to arrive in a timely manner and do everything in my power to support and “be there” for the bride.
______ I will purchase the David’s Bridal style # 81123 dress below in Latte/Champagne within 3 weeks of today.

______ I will NOT knowingly get pregnant without notifying Katie at least 4 months prior to the wedding so a suitable alternate can be found. I will also give my purchased bridesmaid dress to said alternate.

I do hereby swear that I will adhere to all of the above & other understood bridesmaid duties for the wedding on September 21, 2007
X_________________________
(sign, print and date)

Snow on the ground and a condo in my name

2007-04-06T17:19:00.000-05:00

Pictures of our new digs:

MLB: You Suck!

2007-03-31T00:41:00.000-05:00

You've gotta love Pesky!

Apparently, evil has no rythm

2007-03-29T18:22:00.001-05:00

Link

Quick thoughts on the Cubs

2007-03-24T11:05:00.000-05:00

Looking back over my previous post, and thinking about the Sox rotation moving forward, I became very confused over the actions of the Cubs. While I understand the idea of a massively rising market in terms of players salaries and prices (making that Oswalt deal the Astros did even more spectacular, even before he added the apparently brilliant change-up), I am utterly at a loss that they are barely talking to Zambrano. They just threw a Brinks truck at Soriano, who is good but not great, and chucked a bunch of money at some equally mediocre (as in average) players, basically promising all of their satellite radio money to a bunch of guys that make for a good base behind stars but not the vangaurd of a team (save Lee). I think, with the way their team is currently constituted, they need to add another impact bat or two to the lineup for '08 plus another top-flight pitcher in addition to Zambrano. Of course, the only one out there next year with any track record (i.e. not a guy that does well this year in a contract season) is Zambrano. I don't care what he is asking, give it to him.

In a weird way, this is a buyer's market. This is because of all the sticker shock that most teams have had this winter at the deals given out. I don't think this is another year 2000 where everybody goes crazy and the market price will drift down for a few years. I think that, much like in the NFL, the rapid expansion of traditional revenues and new revenue streams will kick up the average salary values excessively. So, as long as you are locking down quality players, you can get someone locked down this year before the rest of the teams come to grips with the fact that the sticker prices are out the window.

Think of it like this, each team is getting something like $10mm in revenue from XM. That means that, on top of regular operating revenue, every team now has an extra $10mm in vault cash sitting around because there are very little expenses for the teams in relationship to the XM deal. Even if owners just pocketed half of that money or put it towards costs and minor league development, each team would apply about $5mm to their major league rosters. So, there is an extra $5mm per year available to spend on players, which we will assume makes it to the major league roster exclusively (which I think is still under the true value, but let's stick with this). So, on the 25 man roster, we would expect an average salary increase of about $200m per player.

However, there is a CBA in place that puts major cost controls on players in their 1st 3 years in the league, plus another 3 arbitration years that somewhat surpress salaries. So, basically, the first 6 years of salary for most players is at best at the league rate for talent (and usually much lower). The majority of players on the major league players fall into this category, as the median career length of the ML players is under 6 years (by a good margin). Also, there are the journeymen and minor league spring-training roster invitees that make low and league minimum-type salaries. So, all things considered, it would not be unreasonable to think that the $5mm per year will be spent almost entirely on the upper third of talent in the majors who are in their 7th year or beyond, and I'm willing to bet that is a conservative estimate. So, if you figure that money is now spread to about 5-8 players per roster (or $600m-$1mm per player).

Okay, so stars are probably going to be bid up by up to a million per year above regular. Doesn't seem too high, right? Well, that will only be the case once prices fully adjust and most teams realize this. In the short run, however, there are very few high quality players on the market, and each team has that $10mm sitting there. So, in the next 2-3 years, there is a surplus of cash for a limited number of players. As such, a smart team would bid a front-loaded contract.

What does this mean? Well, it means the Cubs should (should have?) used that money to lock down Lee (did) and Zambrano (maybe). So what is my point? Well, two things. First, giving Zambrano a contract for the same price as Zito's (remembering that it buys out an arbitration year) would be a good move. Second, the Royal's Meche contract still is probably not a good one because he isn't a top talent.

Short-term disparities in the market mean a smart team will lock-down a top talent.

Alright, spiralled off a bit there, but the point is: if Zambrano ends up anywhere but Wrigley next year, I will call it a poor example of Industrial Organization.

There is an excellent chance this is kick-ass!

2007-03-22T21:22:00.000-05:00

So Paps is back to closing, which is awesome if he stays healthy. This does a few things:

1. It nails down the end of the bullpen. I like the prospect of Timlin, Piniero, and Donnelly working the 8th instead of the 9th. If Papelbon is 75% as effective as he was last year and just pitching the 9th, there will be order in the chaos that was our bullpen. Big help.

2. It could open a spot for Lester down the line. While I don't like the prospect of Tavarez being the 5th starter for the bulk of the year (and frankly, I would prefer Snyder from the get go). However, I prefer Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Lester with Paps closing to Schill, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Papelbon, Wakefield with no closer. It would give us a potentially stud power lefty in the rotation for the 2nd half.

3. If Lester isn't ready, it opens a spot for the Big Douchey Texan. As much as I freakin' hate Clemens, even more so with this "I'm pitching half a year for the highest bidder" bullroar, it would go a long way towards some cathartic healing if he came back to the Sox for the late summer push rather than back to the MFY to be reunited with the merry band of dipshits.

4. Not related to this move, and I know it pains Mets fans when I say this, especially Rizza the Raza', but I am freakin' excited about Matsuzaka.

5. While a forward-looking rotation of Paps, Lester, Matsuzaka, Beckett, and Bard would have been something to salivate over, we still have 3 power pitchers under 27 years old in the starting rotation at the major league level under contract for the next 4+ years. While there are questions about the 3 guys at the major league level, as well as the questions that always come from prospects, the Sox still have an eviable position in the rotation that many teams out there would beg to have happen. Hell, Zambrano and Santana both could pop up in free agency the next two years, as well, so the Sox could also enlist one of their services.

6. Also looking forward, the Sox pen in the future could be filled with Paps, Hansen, Delcarmen, Bryce Cox, and Justin Masterson. Another 5 power arms coming out of the pen to follow the starters makes for one hell of a pitching staff that is both cheap and all under contract for the next 4+ years.

7. This also allows both Manny D. and Hansen to go back to Pawtucket and get a little more polish to their game. Hansen has shown some promise back to his slider, and regular work is just what he needs to regain the dominant form he had through college and to AAA. Get these two guys ready to join the group as effective pen arms and anchor the group I talked about in point 6.

Now, granted, I would prefer to have Paps in the rotation (and in the long run he could probably help the team more there), this still has a lot of upside in the short run and wouldn't be disasterous at all for the team in the long run.

Alright, so where is my Nobel?

2007-03-18T13:27:00.000-05:00

I thought of this in high school! Scroll down to the "Hybrids without batteries" section, and relize I thought of this in high school, and I still have the paper to prove it. In AP Physics C, I actually wrote an extra credit paper on the possibility of hydrolic energy recapture. Granted, I needed to write the paper because I bombed the fluid dyamics test, but whatever. Dr. Pierce even wrote, "Great idea, just not sure how feasible it would be. Sounds like you already know what your thesis could be on, though. Stick with it."

Okay, so maybe as a sophomore I dropped Physics like a pimp's punch drops a ho, but I still think it is pretty cool. The rest of the article is pretty neat, too.

What a week

2007-03-16T17:01:00.000-05:00

So your faithful weblogger, absent all these past days, has some big news. And no, it isn't that the Resident Female is pregnant (why does everyone always think that is what I'm about to tell them?). Rather, Fletcher is now the proud owner of a lovely condo within walking distance of the metro in Arlington (huzaa!). Closing will be April 6, and the home inspection occurred today (just one mis-wired outlet and cold means hot/hot means cold sink in the bathroom).

So, suddenly Fletcher's prolonged absence seems reasonable, yes? We will all stop bitching while calling Fletcher a lazy and crappy weblogger. The former is patently unfair, and the latter is somewhat cruel.

YES!

2007-03-03T20:03:00.000-05:00

Well, this certainly fills a need. I'll take adding the best linebacker on the market, thank you very much. I am giddy about the schemes that Billy B can come up with to get Adalius cracking some skulls next year.

Babbling about Babel

2007-03-02T14:42:00.000-05:00

I saw the movie Babel last night, and I am worse off for it. If you haven't seen it, don't bother. If you have seen it, please tell me you hated it as much as I did. Personally, I hate movies like that and hate it even more that the Academy Awards in general reward that kind of crap (a la Traffic and Crash). I absolutely hate that washed out, chaotic/shaky-cam cinematography that they employ. I hate the epic, sprawling, over-arching story lines. And most of all, I hate how seriously the films take themselves.

Now, that said, I could actually love a movie that employs all those this (the closest proxy is probably Adaptation, which was excellent). That really isn't the issue. The issue is that movies that do employ all of those things tend to have no point. I'm sorry, but what the hell was the general thesis of Babel? What, that our lives all suck, and the act of our lives sucking can actually be cause other lives to suck across the globe? We are never understood? Maybe throw in that guns are bad? I mean, it wasn't quite as pointless as "Crash" constantly whacking us over the head with their point that "racism is bad, M'kay", but Babel still had no purpose. No point. Catharsis from suffering? Bonding through pain? We all end up sad? We all can die at any moment? Seriously, what the hell was the purpose of the movie?

I do get "it", in that the movie was meant to portray varying forms of angst, pain, isolation, and contrast the issues of self-survival and ultimately redemption through caring about each other. I get that as the ultimate goal of the film-makers. But they really took an ass-backwards way of getting to that point, and did so with just horrid excuses of over-the-top "Oh, no, don't... don't do that... no... don't do it, don't do it... You fucking did. You idiot!" Just, that moment over and over and over again. No freaking point.

Because that is all I really want from the movies I watch: I want a point. I want a point and I want it carried out skillfully. It doesn't have to be something monumental importance, but it can be. Some movies entire purpose is to provide mindless entertainment and maybe an occasional campy laugh, like horror and action movies. Others are supposed to just make me laugh outright, like comedies. With dramas, I want something that makes me think, and I want it to do it in a way that actually has some ambiguity and open level of discussion and interpretation central to the plot rather than an over-the-top Topher Grace soliloquy about drug users that seems tacked on and is forced down our throat . Because these movies' purposes just seem to be "look: life is shitty. Feel bad about it. (Thanks for your $8)" I know this about life in general, and I don't need you coming at me with some display of shared angst for the sake of showing angst floating around on a screen for two and a half hours when the best underlying message you can take from it is "yeah, that stuff sucks. Glad that isn't me."

So, that said: Fuck Babel.

A couple throw-away jokes

2007-02-28T22:13:00.000-05:00

These are the things I think of when I am studying furiously for my international finance, monetary theory, and public finance midterms next week:

In olden times there was a position known as "Groom of the Stool", who was in charge of wiping the king's ass. That is the definition of a shitty job.

Top three names for a band made up of economists (with the IO guy on drums):
3. We Do It With Models
2. The E-Motion of Capital
1. Sexy by Assumption

Top three t-shirts that economists own:
3. The OLG model doesn't account for trophy wives!
2. Beer maximizes my utility
1. Economists do it with the invisible hand

Should probably eat more fiber...

2007-02-27T10:05:00.000-05:00

Best headline of the day, from ESPN's MLB page:

Angel's Colon unlikely to be ready by Opening Day.

A Rough Rider indeed

2007-02-26T19:40:00.000-05:00

So this is pretty sick.

A. Sean Feddish checks in

2007-02-22T10:51:00.000-05:00

Our old friend, A. Sean Feddish, checks in with a travelogue of his current excurrsions and experiences. The following is his mass email (sans pictures) with the following email exchange between himself and Fletcher:

The rural town of Yaviza in southern Panama is the end of the road – literally. Although the Inter-American Highway runs virtually unbroken from California to Chile, the road disappears into the jungles south of Yaviza, only to re-emerge across the border in Colombia. The space between is the infamous Darien Gap, a virtual no-go zone of Colombian guerillas, paramilitary and narcotraffickers. According to Robert Young Pelton, the famous adventurer who dubbed the Darien the most dangerous place in the Western Hemisphere, "If the bullets don't get you, the snakes will."

The US State department has drawn imaginary line from Puerto Obaldia in the north to Bahia Pina in the south with Yaviza in the center. Travel south of this line is strongly unadvised.
South of this line is where my travels started.

Lonely Planet open doors, which is why I suddenly found myself in the company of tropical biologists and professional adventurers. As I watched my companions sharpening their machetes, lacing their combat boots and filling up their camelbacks, I couldn't help but shake the feeling that I was on the wrong helicopter. Needless to say, my fledgling Swiss army knife, broken Tevas and cracked Nalgene garnered some unamused looks.

After landing in Punta Patino on the Pacific Coast, we travelled upriver to the Embera village of Mogue. Compared to neighboring Costa Rica, which sees tourists by the hundreds of thousands, our well-equipped party was met by equal parts excitement and surprise. We were the first white people to come here in a long time, though that didn't stop the cassava wine from flowing.

Originally from the Choco region in Colombia, the Embera are the original inhabitants of the Darien, and some of the last remaining inhabitants of the neo-tropical rainforests. They are the guardians of countless generations of botanical wisdom that is virtually unknown to the west. With Asiatic features, distinctive dress and muscled bodies painted with jet blue jagua dye, the Embera are truly a sight to behold.

Heart of Darkness metaphors aside, our party set out from Mogue by dug-out canoe, and continued upriver to the frontier town of Boca de Cupe. Our arrival was met by two platoons of Panama Defense Forces, who were clad from head to toe in the latest digital camouflage, brandishing shiny M-16s and driving around in armor-plated hummers – ladies and gentlemen, your US tax dollars at work.

Since the FARC guerillas at war with Colombia's government are rather fond of raiding Panamanian villages for supplies, the Panama Defense Forces patrol the border and maintain order in an otherwise lawless province. Amused and mortified by the proposition that our group was planning to hike into Colombia, the regional commander took down our names and passport numbers, and politely informed us that his only responsibility from this point onward was to collect our bodies should trouble arise.

Fortunately for us, the Embera have been the eyes and ears of the forests long before Colombia's civil war spilled into Panama. Although modern GPS units and US Department of Defense maps depict the Darien as an impenetrable jungle, the Embera navigate the region by exploiting the dozens of trails that were laid down in the colonial era by Spanish gold miners. With precision senses that can only be honed after a lifetime in the rain forest, an Embera can smell a herd of peccaries a mile away, and can pinpoint the location of a FARC regiment without so much as a compass and a map.

To understand the intrinsic value of the rain forest, one need only acquaint themselves with the diversity of wildlife found within this unique ecosystem. A line of army ants can stretch unbroken for miles, devouring anything foolish enough to interrupt their march. A harpy eagle has roughly the same size claws as a grizzly bear, and will feast on dozens of primates in a single month. A jaguar, which has the most powerful feline jaws in the world, is the only cat that kills its prey by biting through the cranium.

Of course, some of the rain forest's inhabitants are better left alone. As I discovered upon entering a mine shaft that had been abandoned since the early 20 th century, a bite from an eyelash viper can deliver enough poison to kill a full grown man in hours. Fortunately, leather hiking boots are difficult to puncture, and although a dry bite from a viper is extremely painful, it's a great way of reminding yourself of the fragility of human life.

Teetering on the brink of death is good for the soul, and it reminds you that your time here on Earth is limited. With that said, it's been awhile since I've touched based with most of you, though I wanted to let everyone know that I am alive, and doing what I love. At this point, I am getting ready to embark on 6-month around the world trip that will bring me to Japan, Hong Kong, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Toronto, St. Lucia and New York. There will be more e-mails to come.

Take care, and I hope all of you are doing what you love.

A. Sean Feddish

Here is one of the attached pictures:

To which Fletcher responded:

Sure, that's all good and impressive, but have you ever walked along H street through Chinatown at 11 at night on a sunday, buzzed and listening to an iPod? I'd say we are even.

No, I'd say that puts you one-up on me. I mean sure - I get to drink with bare-breasted natives all the time, but you found a means of being surrounding by beautiful college co-eds for the next 5-8 years. Damn you Spartacus!

Actually, this year's crop is not particularly attractive. In fact, when you get right down to it, some of them are rather unpleasant looking. And they are all morons, right down the line. I don't think I was that dumb in my day, was I? Am I becoming cynical and unsympathetic, or is the quality of student really that different from when we were Freshman? Anyway, I digress.
Don't get shot,

Fletcher

I can forgive ugly, but stupid and ugly - isn't that why god invented Darwinism?

You were definintely dumb in your day in the sense that you thought drinking half a handle of bourbon in one sitting was a good idea.

Don't get shot (parts of DC are worse than Colombia),

A. Sean Feddish

Strangely cute

2007-02-17T20:52:00.000-05:00

Birds with extra feet are pretty damn awesome:

Woohoo!

2007-02-10T21:42:00.000-05:00

I just got the news that I passed my Econometrics Field Exam. So just a public finance qualifying exam in May, a couple semesters of class, and a nobel prize winning thesis and I'll have my doctorate! Who wants bourbon?

Tempering the tampering

2007-02-01T20:24:00.000-05:00

In regards to Steady B's comment in the last post:

While it is very conceivable that the Sox tampered with Drew, I think he would have excercised that option regardless. When your agent is Scott Boras and the insane money that Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano are getting, I don't care if Drew said he had leprosy and beat up a hooker, he'd get at least that $33 million back in this market. He was the best outfielder on the market in a year that will hurt a lot of franchises moving forward, so I'm convinced he would have opted out even if the Sox and Yanks had their outfields set.

I more was making the comment about the owner being dumb. If Henry or Steinbrenner started saying "Yeah, we're thinking of trading for Pujols and Santana in a deal", even if there is truth to the negotiations it still screws with the mentality of a player on another team (and that was just a hypothetical comment). If Lowell or Tavarez suddenly get upset because they were included, not just talked about but already set to be traded, well, that is kind of shitty (though may or may not be tampering). If making players on another team aware of the fact that they were not enough to get a deal done but were already put in another uniform by management, there might be some fallout with guys that you were to have gone to war with for the next six months.

Whether it is tampering or not, it is just bad policy. It is one thing to hear your name bandied around associated with a trade rumor that is ultimately speculation. It is another for an owner to come out and say, "Yeah, we had this guy, that guy, and the other guy agreed on, it was just that last piece that didn't fit."

Bah. Now I'm worked up.

If recent history is any indication...

2007-01-30T10:25:00.000-05:00

...Helton will be a Yankee in about three weeks for less than the Sox offered, Steinbrenner will make a snide comment about John Henry's willingness to go the extra distance for his fans, and Helton's lips will become a dark shade of blue or he will grow a weird afro and start playing right field.

Eh. They were asking too much for a guy that would be really expensive as he got old, especially since his main role would be just to work the pitch count rather than try to reclaim his lost power.

And another thing: isn't it considered tampering for an owner to mention the players he wants from another franchise while they are still under contract with the Sox?

State of the Onion

2007-01-23T22:04:00.000-05:00

He's still an ass and an idiot, but that was a pretty good speech. I like the healthcare tax cut, though I doubt that the 40+ million uninsured will see a major reduction (I'd guess 10-15%, though that is still good), mostly because a lot of the people will still not be able to afford it. I think the lion's share of the uninsured are in the 0 and 10% tax bracket who may not be able to afford healthcare (or float the cost short-term until they get their deductions back in April), but if we can insure another 3-6 mill, that is still pretty good.

I wish he had mentioned sugar beets in his alternative fuel bit. We can grow sugar beets in our temperate climate, they have the sugar that can be converted easily and efficiently to ethanol with current technology, and it could get to market without the cost/R&D to get cellulose ethonal to work. Otherwise, pretty good.

Oh, and the Baby Einstein woman shoul be dragged out and shot. Her business is predicated on the idea that playing Mozart to a child will make them smarter, based on a study that said playing Mozart to college students had a slight and transitive effect. That is, fully developed brains did slightly better on exams if they listened to Mozart right before taking a test, but the effect disipated within hours. Yeah, bilking gullible parents out of money over their inscurities of having a dumb child: way to represent captalism!

Just a thought...

2007-01-23T21:00:00.000-05:00

Hearing about all game and how Reche Caldwell dropped a bunch of important passes, passes that very well might have won the game for the pats, it seems we may have traded away a 4th title in 6 years for Seattle's 1st round pick. I'm not saying the Pats would have won if they had Branch, but it sure wouldn't have hurt in that game.

Fuck.

!

2007-01-22T14:15:00.000-05:00

If you are looking for insight or commentary on last night's game, you are going to have to get it from somewhere else. My flight back from Cinnci was cancelled, so instead of getting home in time to watch the end of the game, I ended up being rerouted through Newark (and having to do that fucked up leave-security-only-to-come-back-through-it-so-that-you-nearly-miss-your-connecting-flight bullshit), landing in DC at 10 at night, only to have to wait on the damn tarmac for 90 minutes before I was able to get to a gate (I'm considering filing an "illegal imprisonment" case against Continental, because there were about a dozen visable gates open). Then, after a cluster-fuck of an hour waiting for a freaking cab to pick us up, we finally managed to get home and nestle into a needed sleep at around 1 in the AM. So, I saw none of the game. Although I did find out that the Pats lost while waiting on the tarmac. So, it was an all-around shitty day.

Throw-away, highly offensive comment of the week:

2007-01-18T10:47:00.000-05:00

My cold is so bad and I'm making so much phlegm that I've accidentilly learned Arabic.

Okay, anyhow, done with the testing playoffs, back to the regular season of classes. As for this weekend, to celebrate the completion of this massive exam, I've decided to celebrate by flying to Cinnci and looking at rehearsal dinner venues.

E-Day arrives

2007-01-16T19:41:00.001-05:00

6 hours of testing tomorrow. FUCKING SWEET!

Just say it, already!

2007-01-15T21:34:00.000-05:00

I'm getting pretty tired of this new 24. Just go ahead and put Assad with a big equals sign next to a picture of Arafat.

Smoke & Mirrors!

2007-01-15T09:23:00.000-05:00

Before I get back to desperately cramming for my Wednesday Econometrics Field Exam, here are a few thoughts on the most important event of the weekend:

1. Not convincing or provactive in the manner in which they won it, but the Pats knocked off probably the scariest team in the playoffs, partly from luck (trying a 54 yarder to tie the game when earlier he had gone for it on 4th and 11 in lieu of a 47 yarder, not knocking down a 4th down pass and instead coughing it up on the return, etc). However, good teams have a way of making other good teams seem a little worse. I feel like the Pats got away with on here. Check the post's title...

2. Pats-Colts, round III. Going into the weekend, there were 2 very balanced teams and 2 very one-sided teams. Now it is time for balanced to play strength. Count me as one of the less than impressed crowd at the Colts defensive resurgance. They've played well (heck, better than reasonably expected), but they most have been doing with... this post's title. Herm Edwards is a moron when it comes to adjustments and gameplanning, and backed into the playoffs so hard that the damn team was beeping. The Colts added an extra linebacker and was pinching their corners and safeties in for better position on the run, so naturally Herm decided to run up the gut on 1st and 2nd down then have Trent Green get massacred on 3rd down by Dwight "run straight at the quarterback even if he hands it off" Freeney and Robert "JV Freeney" Mathis. As for the Ravens O not being able to do anything, well, Jamal Lewis has been terrible since his 2000 yard season and Steve McNair reverted to his early season form. The Colts D doesn't frighten me. I am terrified of their offense, however.

3. As terrified as I am of the offense, I will be a little more sane about it if Rodney Harrison is playing. Part of the reason the Pats lost to the Colts was Harrison getting injured in the 1st quarter, which threw their defensive gameplan into disarray (that, combined with the abandonment of the run in the second half). Hawkins and Sanders have definitely jelled pretty well over the course of the season, but those last few games of the season when Harrison game back really did seem to add some extra life to the defense.

4. I never liked the Eagles, so I was pretty pleased to see Reid inexplicably punt after the false start. Punting just prolonged the amount of time that was left until the game was decided, rather than possibly contributing to winning. Especially with that defense.

Alright, I'm off to go study for seven hours or so. Woo hoo!

What the hell?

2007-01-13T17:20:00.000-05:00

Wait a minute, the NFL, CBS, and the FCC all flipped out over the nipple slip, right? So how does it make sense that I see Prince is headlining the superbowl halftime show? Seriously, if you want to distance yourself from wardrobe malfunctions, why on earth would you hire the guy who is known for wearing assless chaps?

Oh, and Manning just threw an interception.

I might get it if I thought it would work...

2007-01-05T00:18:00.000-05:00

Okay, so I just saw one of those cell phone commercials where they were flogging the special feature where you can one-touch conference call a pre-set group of people, in this case a family that was then able to accomplish a bunch of goofy shit marginally faster because of this particular product. I was watching this, and I was struck by how truly ineffective this particular marketing campaing was. After watching it, not only did I have no desire to go out and purchase the "one-touch conference" feature for my phone, but actually thought that the feature was useless and that the ad's stretch for uses merely proved this fact. So, I began to ponder what might actually be an effective way to market this device, and I think I thought of something:

It is a dark night. A man, early 40s, is walking in a poorly lit garage, obviously going home after a late night at work. His hair is speckeled with a few stray greys, and he is obviously weary from a tough day spent agonizing over a project. He reflects on the length of his days and the effort he puts into them and seems content with doing it as a way to support a comfortable lifestyle for his family, as a brief and understated smirk flashes across his face, exposing the thin lines that have come over his face, a by-product of the struggle to raise a family and climb the corporate ladder with modest success. He removes his car keys from his pocket and prepares to open his car, the lone one in the empty lot. As he hits the "unlock" button and the car makes the "blip-blip" noise, we hear two gunshots ring out in the and the 1st-person POV camera angle drops a few feet, then tumbles sideways as his body slumps to the ground. A masked figure snatches the keys from his outstreched hands, climbs into the car, and drives off, stealing his vehicle. We cut to a medium view of the man, two holes in his chest and blood beginning to pool around his stricken body, and he takes his hand and begins to fumble through his pockets. After an agonizing and painfully slow search, his hand emerges from his jacket pocket containing the item he so valiantly struggled to remove: his cellphone. Pressing but one button on the phone, we see he is able to call his wife, his son, and his daughter. As they all answer, he struggles to whisper the faint and labored words "I love you and am so proud of you all." He sighs quietly.

We then cut to an ER waiting room, the mother holding her two teenage children beneath her two arms, her eye make-up streaking down the side of her cheeks and the three of them all sob at the loss of their beloved husband and father. The daughter then says, "I'm glad we at least got to say goodbye."

Cut to a black screen with haunting silence, with only the words "One touch group calling".

Now that's how you sell a cell phone.

Actually, that might be better than some of the recent ones...

2007-01-04T08:47:00.000-05:00

Last night, I had a dream that I was responsible for making a skit for SNL about auto-correllation. Weeeee!

Back to the basics

2007-01-03T09:58:00.000-05:00

Ah, it was a nice respite, but once again it is back to the books. With an econometrics field exam looming in two weeks, I am looking to knock out the 3rd of 4 qualifying exams soon. So, once again, I am diving headlong into the cryptic and nebulous world of my notebooks, trying to cram as much information as humanly possible into this thick noggin in an effort to put myself ahead of the curve in my program. So, if anyone would like to discuss linear algebra, regression analysis, or just rap about the Durbin-Watson statistic (or even Durbin's h), feel free to give me a call.

Happy New Year!

2007-01-01T00:06:00.000-05:00

Happy 2007!

As a personal note, I just rang in the new year wearing women's orange capri pants. Did I mention that I'm 26 years old, am getting married, and am partially responsible for training this nation's youth at the most expensive university that America has to offer?

It's going to be a great year.

Tough thoughts on divorce

2006-12-31T10:15:00.000-05:00

The Resident Female recently recieved an email from a Brazilian paralegal she used to work with at her old firm of Stalin, Satan, & Hilton in which he chronicled the events of his brief marriage and resulting divorce that all occurred since the last time she talked to him, all of 12 months ago. This of course led to a lengthy discussion about the inequities and complications of the divorce process in general and the splitting of assets specifically. Amidsts all this hemming and hawing, once again I, Fletcher Austin McGuffin, came up with a plan that will ultimately benefit society. So, without further ado, here is my plan for divorce: rather than splitting up assets 50-50 and squabbling over who gets the house, who gets the kids, child support, alimony, etc, one person will get to leave the marriage with everything. Which member of the marriage that is will be decided by doing a 10-step duel with pistols at dawn to be supervised by an officer of the court.

Think about it, this would be great. First, there would be a clear winner and a legal system in place to prevent the long and drawn out (and costly) battles that often accompany divorce. Second, the winning party is pretty much garaunteed to feel some kind of closure. Third, I'm pretty sure it would cut down on the divorce rate in the country. Win-win-win. So, dear readers, let me know what you think.

2 Down, 1 To Go

2006-12-16T08:11:00.000-05:00

So the 5 day marathon of testing and grading is about over. I have nailed the first two exams, and I am just waiting to take my last one on Tuesday, after which I will try to grade all of the Munchkins' finals that night before I fly home. Yee ha!

What genius came up with that statistic?

2006-12-14T09:20:00.000-05:00

Last night on Nightline, in a piece about diamonds, the narrator said that most engagements and proposals happen this time of year. He backed this up by saying "December and the run-up through Valentines Day accounts for 25% of all engagements." So, let's see, Valentines Day is in February, and January comes between February and December... So three months account for 25% of all engagements that occur in a calendar year. Hmmm...

Success!

2006-12-13T21:29:00.000-05:00

Good Times! So they got him, and they got him for about the original contract they sent (so that Boras crap was a wholelot of nothing). $8.5 per, so not bad considering the numbers getting bandied about.

So, how do you feel

2006-12-12T13:37:00.000-05:00

I got an email today asking what my opinion is of the Patriots chances of making it 4 in 6 to match the 70's Steelers. Well, after watching that game on Sunday, being asked that question gave me the same feeling that I got when the Resident Female asked me to go onto the Jerry Springer show: this probably isn't going to end well.

Oh, don't you worry (edited)

2006-12-11T17:07:00.000-05:00

I'm pretty sure Matsuzaka is signing, as is this guy. Right now, Boras is just playing chicken, thinking that the Red Sox are in for a penny then they are in for a pound. There is no other team offering him a contract, no other dark horse deal lurking in the shadows to snatch him away from the Sox. The only way to squeeze the Sox is to make them think he wouldn't sign. So, he takes the comprehensive deal sent by the Sox and tables it for three weeks. He makes time the enemy, pushing the posture right up to the deadline to see how much squirming and movement he can elicit out of the Red Sox before they move to double their offer. That is what he is doing, and the Sox know it, and they will get a deal done. And if they don't, I am going to break my other ankle.

Here's the thing, though: everybody involved wants this deal to get done. Everybody.

Obviously, Siebu wants the deal because it would springboard them into the position as the wealthiest team in Japan for at least the short term.

The Sox want the deal because it would be somewhat embarrassing to bid and fail, but more importantly they need him.

Matsuzaka wants to play in the league. He has dreamed of it since he was a kid, the offer on the table has him tripling his salary, and he comes from a culture of pride and honor that would probably view his "greed" in a much more negative light than the US (or at least that is what all these stories that writers have written has led me to believe). Even if he views the posting system as a load of crap, he probably doesn't want to be the one that takes it down at his own expense.

Boras needs him to sign because, even if his goal is to wreck the posting system, it would ultimately be counterproductive for him. Even if he does get the posting system broken (which is no sure thing, even if Matsuzaka doesn't sign), he still will likely get a bad reputation with other Japanese players moving forward. Further, there is no gaurantee that Matsuzaka won't fire him during the year before next year's posting period or two years from now when he is a free agent.

So, personally, I think the "it's dead" stories are the Sox sending some underground smoke signals to Matsuzaka and Japan in general as a way to turn around some of that heat they are feeling and putting it on Boras. I think the Sox, having invested nothing but a theoretical bid, are trying to make Boras twist in the wind the same way he was trying to bluff them into upping their ante. It will happen.

It has to happen.

Edit

Then again, this could be really good or really bad news.

So you've resorted to posting about your dreams?

2006-12-08T07:06:00.000-05:00

Last night I had a dream where Roger Clemens tried to bean Ortiz, charged the plate after the throw, then had a look of complete shock and horror on his face as Tizzle managed to severely break Clemens' ankle in such a way that he would have an arthritic limp for the rest of his greedy and bitch-like days. It was one of the best dreams I've ever had, possibly in part because it was so random.

However, I have noticed of late (the last week or so) that many of my dreams either have me walking without crutches or involve other people breaking their ankles.

As for today's completely random thought (note: I am watching the morning news):
Would anyone in Iran notice if the CIA secretly assissinated Ahmadinejad, then installed a bearded Tony Shalhoub as our puppet regime double of the dead president? I mean, the guy is an actor, so he could probably pull it off. He seems patriotic enough, and he could end the possibility of Iran going nuclear. You see, it's insights like this that would make me the best supreme ruler the United States has ever seen.

You know what? It's not my money.

2006-12-06T07:27:00.000-05:00

Sure, they paid too much and put too many years into Lugo and Drew. Hopefully they also won't trade Manny, meaning the Sox are spending a lot of money this year. Sure, it was a winter of excess in terms of dollars. However, I'm not making any trips to Fenway this year, I'm not buying any merchandise, and I'm not paying any part of their salaries. So instead, as currently constituted (and if they don't make another move other than signing Matsuzaka), the Sox are going into training camp with the following team:

Starting 9:

SS Lugo (r)
1B Youkilis (r)
DH Ortiz (l)
LF Ramirex (r)
RF Drew (l)
3B Lowell (r)
C Varitek (s)
CF Crisp (s)
2B Pedroia (r)

Although I could see Crisp hitting 9th as the "2nd leadoff", and also to make the l-r balance a bit more. Regardless, that is a pretty strong lineup. Lowell and Varitek will probably continue their slide, but hopefully Crisp and Youks will improve (especially now that Crisp's hand has had a year to heal).

Bench:
OF Wily Mo (though he is now trade bait for a closer)
OF David Murphy
IF Cora
C Unkown (Kotteras?)
OF/1B Eric Hinske

Not too shabby. A little hard on the defensive replacement front, but a fairly good compliment. Maybe a bit too right handed.

Pitching:
S Curt Schilling
S Daisuke Matsuzaka
S Tim Wakefield
S Jon Papelbon
S Josh Beckett

Monster. Absolute Monster. With some good swing guys in the wings.

Swingman: Clement/Lester/Snyder/Dinardo/Gabbard/Hansack

Side note: congrats to Jon Lester for being cancer free. May you comeback as a beast on the mound.

RP Timlin
RP Delcarmen
RP Hansen
RP Okajima
RP Tavarez

A little light on the closer front, so there is likely to be a move, especially since the Sox are basically carrying 3 backup outfielders. Not sure who the odd man out is. However, if Hansen and Delcarmen continue to develop and Okajima is as advertized, this could be a pretty decent bullpen. If Hansen can find that high-80s/low 90s slider that we heard about and can step into the closer role, well, this could be the best Sox bullpen since 2004 (before Foulke, Embree, and Timlin got roasted to a fine crisp).

Overall, with the exception of closer, that is a pretty nice 25 man roster. The lineup is now able to mash, and the 1-5 in the lineup is pretty sick, especially Ortiz to Drew. The starting pitching

Random thought of the day

2006-12-05T09:36:00.000-05:00

I like sex to be like eating a grapefruit: when you're done your hands are all sticky and your eyes are stinging from the spray.

Happy Birthday to Me

2006-12-03T20:12:00.000-05:00

It's true: Fletcher is now 26. So, let's take a quick examination his life.

Fletcher is currently being paid roughly $7 an hour to teach munchkins the ins and outs of macroeconomics and regression analysis. He still can't grow a decent moustache (much less a passable beard), is still technically single, and instead of watching the Pats beat the Lions live spent the day reading the online play-by-play and popping vicodin. For reference, at this point in his life Einstein had pretty much completed all of his groundbreaking theoretical work.

Anyhow, the Resident Female and I will finish off the night in bed watching Superman Returns and Boston Legal, nursing a horrendous case of the flu and a broken ankle (respectively).

Edited:

As the last hour of my birthday comes to a close, and the Broncos cling to a hopeful defeat, I felt the need to type up my view on Superman returns, as I was rather disappointed with the results. The movie lacked any real excitement, and was extremely long for something so freaking boring. Further, I found that Superman was not so much a man with multiple super powers, but rather just a really good pusher. Seriously, I think that is all he did. If something was falling, he got in front of it and pushed until it slowed to a stop. If something was stopped, he pushed it until it moved out of where it wasn't suppossed to be. It was like watching a glorified warehouse worker for two and a half hours.

Jay Cutler, trying to erase a 4 point deficeit, just got intercepted. I'm going to watch the last 4 minutes. Good night.

Killing the pain

2006-11-28T19:49:00.000-05:00

1) Well, it's official: I am now a cyborg. After about 9 days of trouncing around with a heavy and loose-fitting splint, I am now into one of those massive bionic boots. So look for me sporting an always fashionable black boot to compliment my year-old New Balance sneaker. And even though the promise of being able to put some of my ample weight down on the leg is still a dream for another day (still somewhat excruciating), and the swelling is still making my foot look a little like a tick that just had its fill, the bruising has thankfully started to dissipate. Now, instead of being a sickening deep purple, my skin now sports a delightful faux-Asian yellow hue.

2) Just for the record, The Resident Female is a trooper. In the span of 4 days, she drove 24 hours in heavy traffic and heavy rain with one headlight out. 24 hours in 4 days, which, if my calculations are correct, is roughly 22 hours per day (Serious, at 25% of the time behind the wheel, the girl deserve massive congrats). Highlight of the trip was when there was an accident a few cars ahead of us, she slammed on the brakes, and I (sitting in the back seat so I could put my leg up) was flung full force into the back of her seat. Note: this was my first experience as a projectile, and I didn't like it.

The Joy of Armpit Sores

2006-11-20T07:21:00.000-05:00

Despite the fact that Fletcher generally moves with a certain quite dignity, a form of grace in motion akin to the nimbleness of a cat, the sure-footedness of a mountain goat, the beauty-in-motion of a Special Olympics Triathalete, Saturday night I seem to have proved myself incapable of successfully navigating a flight of stairs.

Yes, after a thoroughly enjoyable night at the MCI (Verizon) center watching what the Resident Female thought was going to be a free hockey game that her boss had given her tickets for (it turned out that it was a basketball contest. Oops.), we were rushing down an escalator to try to catch the train that had just pulled into the station. Of course, the escalator was off, the bottom step had about a half an inch raise over the flat ones, and my foot was not prepared for the unevenness of that step. And down I went.

The good news is that we did in fact make the train. The bad news is that by the time we got to my metro stop, I was barely able to walk out to the street. I was unable to complete the walk and the Resident Female actually had to go get in the car and pick me up while I leaned against a wall and wept like a little girl.

So, after a few hours in the ER, I discover that I broke my ankle. While I still have to see an Orthopedist, it appears I likely will need a soft cast, likely will not need surgery, and amputation is pretty much off the table.

Of course, I was planning on making the road trip to RI twice in the next month, with a third trp by flight thrown in between. So, that should be fun, as I am currently about as mobile as an Oprah-sized shut-in. As such, I am deeply inconveniencing the Resident Female by having her skip taking the train and instead driving me to RI, staying for the night, then driving to her mother's on Turkey Day.

The moral, as always, is leave it to Fletcher to screw things up for everyone else. Although if she gets really mad about it, I could always just crush up one of the pain meds they gave me and sprinkle it over her cereal...

To reply

2006-11-16T12:45:00.000-05:00

To compliment my response to Steady B's response to my response to Steady B, here is some more on the contract, taken from this insider article (thanks again, Dorf!):

"So I expect that the Red Sox are going to offer something in the four years, $9 million-a-year range," said the official, "but maybe try to work out a six-year deal in order to get the average annual value of the total package down -- say, like six years at $10 million, which would get the AAV down below $20 million [$51.11 million bid, plus $60 million in salary].

"Boras basically is in an impossible situation, because nobody wants the negotiations to break down and have this guy go back to Japan. Seibu doesn't want him back, because they want to keep the $51 million. Matsuzaka doesn't want to go back, and a $10 million a year offer is a 300 percent raise for him over what he made in Japan. Major League Baseball wants him to stay, of course, because of the interest he's generated."

"The only way Boras could get real leverage in the negotiations, besides threatening to return to Japan, would be if commissioner Bud Selig determines that the Red Sox are not acting in good faith in negotiations; Selig is the only party in this matter with the power to award negotiation rights to another team. "And do you think that the commissioner is going to step in and say that an offer of four years, $36 million is not fair to Matsuzaka?" said the official. "Of course not. He's livid about the bidding to begin with, about the possible overall cost being far more than $20 million a year. Do you really think he would step in to rescue Scott Boras?"

I'd rather roll the Dais than sign Kris Benson

2006-11-16T09:08:00.000-05:00

Edited 10:50 AM

My dearest Steady B,
While I do agree that the Red Sox are spending a whole buttload of dollars for an unknown and unproven quantity, I must disagree with your sentiment that 1) The Sox are going to get hosed on the price by Boras and 2) They are setting the bar for pitching much higher than otherwise expected as egregiously (or more so) than the Mets did with Benson. Bear with me for the following arguments:

1) While Boras is a great negotiator and has sucked more nickels out of his target than an Atlantic City hooker, this is a different case than a free agent. For starters, the Sox will not face him saying "Yeah, well, I just got off the phone with another team that is offering double what you are for twice the years and a 10% stake of ownership with the ball club." Basically, Dice is facing two prospects right now: the Sox at $9-$14mm per year, or Siebu at $3.5. Plus, the guy has been so excited to play in the majors since he was in high school that he has been begging to be posted for 2 or 3 years. The main worry I have about the negotiations is that Boras may go short on years (rumor is he wants a 3 year deal so that Dice hits the Market at age 29, though he probably will sign for 4). Granted, a shorter deal kicks up his average annual cost, but it also gives the Sox 2 distinct advantages: they can turn this around on Boras and lower his average annual salary by accepting a shorter deal, and they will have 2-3 years to see if he actually reaches his potential (early growing pains aside) and still have a year to hammer out another long-term deal. If the deal is short, it doesn't mean he will be a free agent, just that the Sox will have to extend him a bit earlier (and having invested $51mm just to talk to him is a great incentive to extend him unless he is a total bust). My predictions is he either goes 3 years $32mm or 4 years at $44mm.

2) The money is not as critical moving forward due to luxury tax and past moves, though it is not a sunk cost, and it will come back in it's own right. The Sox, having failed in negotiations with Clemens, Damon, and Pedro, have a lot more money sitting around than they expected. Over the last 3 years, they have been much more profitable than at any time in their history, and they haven't made the huge outlays in cash that they were expecting too because they haven't really signed anyone to a big money deal. Words is they probably have most of the money sitting around. Additionally, since this is a one-time fee that doesn't affect the luxury tax, this will not hurt them moving forward the way a bad contract could (note: this is a different concept than 'Sunk Cost'). With a bad contract, unless it is front-loaded, you have to incorporate it into your budget going forward, and it affects you both in that a) future revenue is earmarked to pay for a player who is either underperforming and hurting the team or worse is not even playing so you are paying twice for the position and b) if you are close to the luxury tax, makes other signings and contracts more expensive (i.e. making a $10mm/year FA signing actually a $14mm/year player from a budget standpoint). The post fee does niether, as it doesn't count towards the luxury tax (so it doesn't hinder contracts in other areas others by increasing their cost) and the money doesn't have to come from future revenue. Assuming the Sox have the money in their coffers, there is no problem. If they eat into a little future revenue, the cost gets mitigated going forward. So they are not really paying A-Rod or Manny money every year, just emptying their piggyback now and refilling it going forward.

3) Also, as I mentioned before, some of the posting fee can be viewed as an investment in building a fandom in Japan rather than as an investment in the player. The Sox have little or no revenue from Japan at the moment, but that is about to change. I'll ask A. Sean Feddish (who is currently in Japan) to start looking out for this, but I bet you dollars to doughnuts that there are going to be a whole crap load of Matsuzaka Red Sox t-shirts sitting in drawers next to their "Hello Kitty" counterparts. And that is before Lucky Larry gets his wheels in motion and has every teenager from Sendai to Hokkaido getting Wally the Green Monster dolls for Christmas. Granted, I don't think the Japanese market is going to provide $51mm in the near future, but the returns will mitigate the outlays in the coming months, moreso than a traditional FA signing does with new merchandizing sales of an American or Dominican.

4) Matsuzaka is quite possibly the best pitcher on the market, and young. There aren't many aces on the free-agent horizon, especially at age 26. With all respect due to Kris Benson, or Gil Meche, or whomever, Matsuzaka has the potential to be the Sox ace for the next decade. The way baseball is currently set up, 26 year olds who even have the potential to be an ace in the leagues do not hit the free agent market. Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Ben Sheets, Brandon Webb, Scott Kazmir, et al will never see the light of Free Agency in their twenties because the market for good pitching is so damn important and even low-revenue teams get $20mm a year from revenue sharing that they lock those guys up until they are 30. For a potential ace to hit free agency at age 26, he would have to come into the league as a rookie when he was 19 or 20, prove that he can stay healthy throughout that whole time, and turn down all the long-terms deal that the team probably has been offering him since arbitration years started. The only other option to get a 26-year old stud pitcher is to trade half your farm system for the guy.

5) The market this year and next is crap. Schmidt is an NL refugee who is aged 34 today, and likely will get 5 years thrown his way. Zito has pitched his entire career in a pitchers park and gets lit up like a joint at a Phish concert every time he gets near an AL East lineup (something like a 6+ ERA against the Sox and Yanks). And both those guys are going for a lot of years at a lot of money. After that, you are just plugging holes with question marks. And nobody else worthwhile and young is on the market next year, either.

6) All apologies, but the wacky Kris Benson contract trend continued through last year and was going to do so this year, anyhow. Before the posting numbers were out, there was already talk that Justin Speier (Just Freaking Speier!) was going to probably get $10-$12mm per year. Just from last year, Kevin Millwood is averaging $12mm per year. Matt Morris and Paul Byrd are making $9 and $7mm, respectively, to put up their near 5 ERAs (note: please no Beckett jokes here). Hell, the Sox have to pay $8.5mm to Clement, who is probably note even going to make the team. I mean, the Orioles just willingly took Jaret Wright in exchange for a young reliever when he would have become a FA in 20 minutes. Maybe the Kris Benson signing is not so bad in retrospect, but we are in a market where there are no good pitchers available for anything less than 3 or 4 excellent prospects and crappy starters are going to get three years at $9mm per just for showing up. I mean, teams are actually going to be apologizing to their fans for not signing Jeff Freaking Suppan to bolster their rotation. Pitching is never dependable in the FA market, but at this point Dice is the guy with the best upside, including the potential to be an ace for more than 2 or 3 years. To get that from anywhere else in the market, you are giving up $17mm per year for 5 or 6 years, plus every good prospect you have above AA.

7) All that said, if he gets hurt out of the gate or sucks massive ass, this could be a really bad deal for the Sox.

Edited 10:50 AM

Just thought I would throw up an excerpt from this article, as well:

I leave you with the simplest interview ever conducted, yet I find it absolutely hilarious.
Q. What do you know about the Red Sox?A. It is a team with history, with the oldest stadium. Babe Ruth, Cy Young, and Ted Williams played there, to name a few.
Q. How would you react to Red Sox fans “booing”? A. If you can’t perform, you deserve it. I want to get good numbers and hope to get booed at away games.
Q. What is your impression of Boston? A. Never been there, but it has famous universities, museums and hospitals. I’ll like it.
Welcome to Boston, Daisuke.

Also pointed out in the article that, in 2009 the Sox could have a rotation with 5 of the following 7 guys: Beckett, Papelbon, Matsuzaka, Lester, Micheal Bowden, Clay Bucholz, and Daniel Bard. All under 30, only Beckett and Matsuzaka on a large money contract, and only Papelbon in his first year of Arbitration. Tee Hee.

Holy Crap that's a lot of Yen!

2006-11-15T07:45:00.000-05:00

1) $51.1mm to buy the negotiating rights for Matsuzaka. So the Red Sox essentially paid Johnny Damon's contract for the mere rights to negotiate with a guy that has never thrown a pitch in the major leagues (and, interestingly enough, uses a pitch that has never been thrown in the major leagues). Granted, I'm pleased that the Sox are getting him instead of the Yankees (or, if they do a sign-and-trade, basically purchasing prospects). I guess we now know what the Sox did with all that Pedro/Damon/Clemens money that they decided not to spend.

2) Another reason this move makes good sense: the money doesn't count against the luxury tax. The Red Sox, along with about 4 or 5 other franchises, have the financial ability to actually carry out large contracts. Despite what some media might say in the coming days, this posting fits in perfectly with the organizational philosophy that the Sox have been flogging. The Sox have stressed building a farm system and have cheap players, young players with bright futures littering their roster. The Sox were not doing that to reduce payroll and try to get by with a $60mm payroll. They are stressing this so that they can afford to post massive sums of money for foreign players, young free agents, and other guys not on the downslope of their career. Fancy this: Matsuzaka is 26. He is the same age as Beckett and Papelbon. These are the type of player the Sox are targeting, and in this case they had an opportunity to flex their finances and essentially purchase a player without giving up any talent, made partially possible by letting Pedro and Damon age on the fields in New York. The Sox don't want to be in situations where they are paying for production up front in lieu of having long money still in players that are old and no longer viable players on a championship level (that is why Trot is taking a walk).

3) Also of note is that the posting fee will likely make some of the money back for the Sox. I bet that the $12-$18mm that the Sox outbid the Yanks will come back in ad revenue and other marketing opportunities in Japan, moreso than the Yankees would have recieved (mostly because they already have a pretty decent market penetration because of Matsui). Of course, if the Sox really want to capitalize on the market, they could also go after Iwamura...

4) Of course, if the Sox splurged on the posting fee and it has a negative affect on their ability to operate on the open market this winter (Maybe JD Drew?), well, then, that might not be ideal.

5) Look at this guy:

This is Mowgli. This is the newest addition to the McGuffin family, as my brother and his wife recently got him. Cute as all heck, eh?

(note: my brother's previous canine was named Bahgeera. Just a hunch, but I bet his third dog will be named Baloo).

It really does hurt when it cracks

2006-11-13T11:05:00.000-05:00

Watch this video clip. It is very frightening.

Political Humor and Phlegm

2006-11-08T08:23:00.000-05:00

1) It's nice to see voting irregularities are still going on. Damn electronic voting machines. In Virginia, I tried to vote for Webb, but I ended up accidentily voting across the board for the "Female Circumcision Party". It was an easy mistake to make in the Allen vs. Webb race, as the decision came down to voting for a racist or a mysoginist, and, well, I wanted to vote for the guy who promised he would make West Point into a horny woman's dream (assuming they release the videos). It looks like there is going to be a recount, but Webb has about an 8,000 vote lead as most of the result trickle in.

2) So my doctor said yesterday that I have a viral infection of my chest lining, which is inflaming the cartiledge between my ribs. So, whenever I cough, it feels like I am being sat on by Azamat (thank goodness I shaved today). Essentially, the cold has simulated the experience of having a dozen or so cracked ribs (seriously). I've heard of a cold kicking your ass, but I've never knew that meant you might actually end up with an ass-kicked injury.

3) A guy in my program, the Montana Banana (note: he is blonde), recently broke up with his red-headed girlfriend of several years and decided about 2 weeks later to jump right back into a relationship with another red-head. Now, while there are plenty of jokes and insinuations I could make about the whole red-head fetish he appears to have (e.g. he is leaving a trail of burnt sienna in his wake), I am more shocked at the quizzical and quixotic decision to leap out of one relationship and dive head-first into a new one with a girl he just met. Now, I appreciate how good "new relationship" sex is, and any opportunity to maximize it in the first month should be taken up, it still appears to me that he has consciously decided to leap out of the frying pan and into the firecrotch.

In related news: Econ Phd student arrested for indecent exposure, claimed he was just "maximizing his utility"

2006-10-16T18:48:00.000-05:00

1) So a month's worth of studying like a fiend paid off. The news came down the pipe today, I passed both my comprehensive exams, and (assuming I pass the classes I am currently taking) I am now the proud owner of a shiny new Master of Arts degree in Economics. Up next, my Econometrics Field Exam this January, a Public Finance Field in May, then that MA will be joined by an M.Phil. Then I am just one Nobel Prize-winning dissertation away from officially being Doctor McGuffin. So, what did you all do today?

2) I actually watched the entire game 3 and game 4 of the Yankees-Tigers series, and I had a really hilarious and insightful (and possibly inciteful) post written and ready to go up. Unfortunately, as the last out was made and the Tigers began celebrating that they officially de-pantsed the Yankees, I accidently ejaculated all over the keyboard and shorted out the computer. Needless to say, there was no shortage of Schadenfraude (literally: shameful joy) kicking around this apartment. To all my Yankee fan "friends", I will say this much: You were almost right that they were the best team ever. They just barely missed that ever-elusive 1/5th of a billion dollar World Series by the slightest of margins: ten wins. So, yes, Cro-Magnon, you were right that the WS was already in the bag.

3) You know, it's funny, I always assumed it would be a shitload of work and effort to put on a wedding. Yet, somehow, this thing seems to be planning itself. And it's really cheap, too. I will now light myself on fire.

4) My semester has taken an odd, sisyphusian turn. The class I am TAing for has a quiz every Monday and a homework set every Wednesday, and two midterms. I also am contracuably obligded to give 15 hours per semester to another class (which has already been surpassed with no end in sight). In the past week, and not counting my own work mind you, I have spent 49 hours grading. Grading the same thing, 40 times in a row, reading and trying to figure out what the fuck this little bastards wrote instead of the correct answer to give them partial credit so that they don't bug the shit out of me in office hours. I will now take a sledge hammer to my little toes.

5) So the last stock I publicly suggested, PGH, has taken a pretty decent flogging in the market, though this is mostly because their recent expenditure of capital means they will probably have to reduce their massive dividend. But hey, 14% yield is still 14%. Oh, and PHLY still keeps cranking it's way up, so congrats Dorf. Still kicking myself for only pushing in half of what I normally do into my stock investments when I bought it at 70 (or $23 pre-split). I will now deposit my nutsack into a wheat thresher.

6) Here is a quote from this article:

"I walked in on an episode of South Park one night last week. Perhaps the show's creators have gone slightly over the line. There was a graphic scene with a cartoon George Bush shooting some guy in the head. Now there's some quality American television. We ask why our kids have become desensitized to things like gun violence. Gee, I wonder why."

Here is the thing. Coffee BS, Brett Favre man-crush, retarded softball updates, and massive ass aside, I find Peter King amusing if not nearly as insightful as he should be. However, this high-horse crap needs to stop, as does his "I find this special, so I'm going to do a lifeless retelling of it, put a judgemental sentence on the end, and tell you that you should feel special as a result." I've had it. The guy has lost it, especially when he starts with this heavy-handed judgemental shit. As such, let's review his argument:
1) He saw a part of the show
2) He didn't like it
3) He condemns a poorly animated cartoon on a cable channel that is only aired after 10 pm at night for sending a bad message to children and infers that it is the reason that kids are desensitized to gun violence.
4) He added a smarmy, sarcastic, self-righteous comment that wasn't even attempting to be clever.
While there were no links to his citation of studies proving that kids are, in fat... excuse me, in fact... desensitized to things like gun violence. Additionally, I think it mildly retarded that he thinks that South Park is the epitome of the end of American culture, whereas in point of fact it they are probably one of the few shows that actually are able to make real insightful and intelligent satire into the mainstream and have you average neighborhood cretin lap it up and think. Of course, his version of intelligent discourse is writing some bullshit about something that moved him and end the dry retelling with, "I just think that's special." Though he is right that South Park seems to be the only place on television that you can see realistic violence and gory violence (might I add that he mentioned CSI on the same page?).

As such, in the rare event that Mr. King stumbles across this humble weblog, I will say this: Mr. King, please remember that you became a nationally syndicated writer by adding a significant and intelligent voice to football analysis, and you did not get to this place by saying how nice it is to watch multiple games on television at once, how you are a Red Sox fan who likes Jeter, or passing caffiene-fueled heavyhanded moral judgements on 5 minutes of television. In fact, I'll make a deal with you: you go back to football analysis, I'll go back to making incoherant rants about random and relatively irrelevant topics which nobody will actually read. For our respective efforts, we will both be paid accordingly. Sound fair?

Thanks, OPEC!

2006-10-06T08:21:00.000-05:00

Come on, Alternative Engergy! I've said it before, and I'll say it again: the way we win the war on terror is by cutting off any and all money going to the middle east. Eliminate the need for oil, and you entirely undercut their economic base. If they have no economy, they have no resources to devote towards terrorism, no support for royal families that blame the US and the West for all their masses' problems, and then the countries can either have no wealth or be forced to make a society that creates items of value in order to survive in the global marketplace.

The only problem with the above theory is that it can't just be the US not purchasing their oil. If the US just stops, the rest of the world will just pick up the demand for it. The only solution is to make it more economically viable to use other sources of energy. So, like I said, "Come on, Alternative Energy!"

Side note: although most of the good oil from the Middle East is already gone. What is left in the ground there is too crude and not energetic enough for a lot of the purposes of the West, especially with the environmental standards the US has. So, I guess we really could just get China and India addicted to high-quality oil, as well, and that would serve our purpose equally.

Meaningless sex is fun for twenty or thirty years, but after that, it starts to get old.

2006-10-03T08:29:00.000-05:00

1) Fate has a way of intervening in the relationship between the Resident Female and myself that is not always pleasant. For a perfect example of this, examine Sunday. After a perfectly lovely Saturday spent together (see post 6), on Sunday our relationship was thrown headlong into turmoil. "Why did this happen?" you might ask? Well, The Resident Female and I both are faithful followers of our respective regional football teams: She loves the Queen's City Kitties, and I the New United Kindgom Minutemen. Unfortunately for us, these two noble squads clashed on Sunday in her hometown. Unfortunately for her, my boys absolutely throttled her Bengals. Unfortunately for me, I am incapable of keeping my mouth shut. Apparently, I also am incapable of resisting the urge to taunt her, inform her that there is still space on the Patriots' bandwagon, repeatedly try to put my Patriots hat on her head in the middle of the game, or laughing maniacly and pointing her out to other Pats fans so that they might join in. Needless to say, I need to buy a nicer couch because my back just can't take this.

2) That said, it was a pleasant experience to see the boys in red, white, and blue lay a wallop on a good team. And man alive, is that Laurence Maroney something! That boy stiff-armed the living crap out of two defenders in a way I haven't ever seen a Pats' running back do. Man alive, this team may still have some life yet. Granted, I still think people wrote them off a bit prematurely because a) the Jets got two long touchdowns on a fluke play and a poor tackling job and b) because they never have looked good against Denver (and I mean never). The Pats are still one hell of a team, especially once Brady gets his rythm with Gabriel, Jackson, and Caldewell. Oh, and don't forget our 9 tight ends.

3) Ah, it is with a sad heart that the Red Sox season comes to a close. A year that seemed to me as a transition year at the start to a new, better, younger team seems to have somehow made the team's prospect moving forward look worse and still disappointed like you wouldn't believe. So the 3rd place Red Sox must retool and rework a large portion of their roster this winter. Well, much like every other season (including 2004), there is always a hint of sadness when the season closes on my favorite baseball team, as the warm, halcion days of pitch, hit, and catch give way to the chilly and stagnant daily standings of football. Alas, 2006 Red Sox, I thank you for a summer filled with the joy of baseball, three hours a night. Here's to Papi hitting 60 dingers next year.

4) On another sad note, the only baseball that seems left to watch are the games where the Juicy Boys try to slug their way to a World Series title that they rightfully purchased. I've noticed that many of my Yankees fan "friends" have finally hopped back on the bandwagon, their enmeshed "Y" and "N"s once again donning their heads for the first time since they blew the largest lead in playoff history. Well, I've decided that my only recourse is to wear my "Making History: Greatest Comeback in Playoff History" "2004 Red Sox" T-shirt every single day that HGHiambi and his raucous band of millionaires take the field. Any Yankee fan tries to gloat over me, well, they better have won another 11 games before they do so. That's all I'm saying.

5) Here is an article that suggest new anti-psychotic drugs are only slightly more effective (if at all) than newer and significantly more expenxive ones. So don't be surprised in the coming weeks if a lot of doctors that prescribed the drugs that are less effective but 10 times more expensive than the generics to show up brutally murdered.

6) And on a personal note, the throngs of those in thongs are a bit sadder today. Yes, it's true, Fletcher Austin McGuffin has now officially agreed to become Mr. Fletcher Austin McResident-Female. In a lovely evening this weekend, one that was so romantic it would make even the most over-the-top French Poet vomit from the near-diabetic sugaryness, Fletcher did propose to the Resident Female. And, much to his surprise, she agreed. For those that would like the details, well, it went down a little something like this:

I sent her a FedEx package, inside of which was the ring (the finest cubic zerkonia that Chinatown can produce) and a note that said "Will you marry me? Please check the appropriate box:
Yes
No
Maybe"
Well, with hardly any hesitation, and with a tear welling up in her eye, she turned to me and said, "I'm not marrying you until you get me a nicer ring." So, a quick trip to the Jeweler and another to the black market surgeon, we were officially engaged and the ring was paid off. And so I can honestly say I don't feel like I have lost a kidney, but rather gained a lovely woman whom would not give me the time of day if she were in her right mind. Wish us luck!

Teaser

2006-10-02T10:58:00.000-05:00

I want to give a more in depth post sometime in the next 24 hours, but just as a slight teaser I thought I would bring this article to everyone's attention because it implies that one of the main arguments repeatedly rehashed in this space may in fact be correct: Roger Clemens is a huge douche-bag who smokes pole and would sell out his own mother for a nickel. Enjoy!

Conform and be dull

2006-09-26T07:55:00.000-05:00

1) Did anybody notice that in the span of about three months the 10-year note went from yielding over 5% to 4.56% yesterday? Due to an assortment of reasons, I've pretty much ignored my bond portfolio since I took the comps, and boy if I wasn't in for a shock when I did. Look at the freaking yield curve. There is definitely not a lot of confidence out there, especially with the 5 year. This is one wacky economy.

2) So why does it seem the Pats can never beat the fucking Broncos? I mean, I've hated them since John "I'm a bitch and won't play for Baltimore" Elway was engineering his last-minute magic in the superbowl, bring the deficit under 50 points with like 20 minutes to play, and I think the Pats have beaten them twice since then. I don't get it. With one exception in each case, the last 5 years or so have played out like some NFL version of Rock, Paper, Scissors: The Broncos alway beat the Pats, the Pats always beat the Colts, and the Colts always beat the Broncos. It annoys the hell out of me, because I hate Denver so much.

3) And another thing, what is up with the refereeing in the NFL? Granted, I didn't expect much from the douche-bag in the Pats-Broncos game since he blatantly hates the Patriots (for evidence, see his diatribe at Brady in Miami at the beginning of overtime when he switched what was heads and tails on the coin toss). I never expect him to ref a Pats game fairly. But it does seem like, in the Pats-Broncos, Pats-Jets, and Cinci-Pittsburgh game (the three games I have watched live this year) that the referees are going nuts. Apparently roughing the quarterback is any hit that occurs when the quartback is about to think about throwing the ball, a reciever can get a defensive pass-interference penalty by just putting his arm on a defender (especially if his name is Asante Samuel), and offensive linemen stopped holding entirely.

Look, I'm not there on the field, and I get the benefit of replay, but if a defender is about to hit a quarterback/make a tackle and then a lineman is engaging that defender from the side and he is completely out of the play, that usually isn't organic.

If the quarterback has a man in his face as he releases the ball, it isn't roughing the passer if the guy hits him. Neither is it roughing the passer if the player is hit from behind by a lineman, hits into the QB's thigh, and slides down to his ankle. It also isn't roughing the passer if the lineman breathes in his general direction or reaches his hand out at him from behind the line off scrimmage.

And pass interference at this point is absolutely ridiculous. It is called inconsistently, irrationally, and often times on the wrong player. Maybe it is worse for the Pats because of their reputation, or maybe it is just my jaded view thinking it is, but half the time it is called on the defense it occurs because the offensive player initiated the contact. The refs need to remember that the defenders don't know which route the receiver is running, and if he is at the point where the ball is being thrown to, that isn't a penalty. If the receiver touches the defender and the defender pushes his arm away, that is a penalty on the offense.

Honestly, the refereeing is so bad, particularly in the passing game, that I almost don't want to watch the NFL anymore. And I mean this about non-Pats related games as well (though obviously I watch more Pats games than non-pats games), but I just feel cheated when drives are kept alive or teams handed 1st-and-goals by referees. I feel like I didn't watch a game as much as I watched a script, an extravagant WWE match that favors passing touchdowns without receptions, quarterbacks who throw with impunity and can hold onto the ball until the Rapture comes without fear of being hit because they know that their linemen will just hold the rushers and cut-block their legs in a consequence-free environment. And if somehow he does get hit, well, that's a free 15-yards from the yellow flag, a small price to pay to orchestrate a scoring drive by penalty. Hell, why throw a 10-yard out that can be intercepted when you can get 15 yards on a roughing the passer penalty?

Is this really the game I love? Really? Fuck!

4) The Resident Female and I, as well as the Lynchpin, all watched Heroes and Studio 60 last night, and we were surprisingly pleased by both. It seems that NBC's mad push at relevance seems to have paid at least some early dividends. I'm not saying their back to Seinfeld, Friends, ER, TGIF heyday just yet, but they seem to have a few shows with some promise going. I'm as shocked as you.

5) Deion Branch. Okay, this annoys me. Granted, I don't think BB was particularly forgiving in the whole showdown, but the Pats did offer him a fair contract (actually, they offered him 3 of them). But we did need him. Sure, receiver is not the place that a team should dump a large portion of its salary cap, especially one with the offensive philosophy of the Pats, but still. Reche Caldwell? Troy Brown in his 14th season? Okay, I like Doug Gabriel and Chad Jackson, but I don't think they have much this year. But the unintended consequence from this whole thing is that Brady now looks like he was just pistol whipped and forced to watch his dog get run over repeatedly. And can you blame him? The guy takes the hometown discount in order to leave some money for his teammates, and they all end up leaving in no small part because of management. Sure, Givens got overpaid, and Branch probably got more than he should have, but this still stinks.

6) Here are my least favorite teams in all of sports:

10. Texas Rangers - Tom Hicks and his "we're talking about trading A-Rod for Manny as a way to replace Nomar" bullshit earned them a place on this list, especially since he wanted the Sox to pick up more than 125% of that ridiculous contracted that he paid an extra $100mm for. Jackass.
9. Houston Astros - Roger Clemens can chew on the back of my ass. And what drunken southern hick thought it was a good idea to put a hill, complete with a flag pole, in the fucking outfield? Why stop there? Did they nix the idea to have a bunch of tires in the basepath so that the runner needs to step in each one on the way home? Or a moat around the pitcher's mound? "Hey, let's be the only 3-D field in the majors, and toss in a massive metal pole sticking out of the ground just for good measure. " Fucking Texas.
8. Toronto Blue Jays - Now that Hillenbrand is gone, I don't reallly dislike them so much as I just fear them. The Sox can't seem to ever pitch well against these guys.
7. Indianapolis Colts - They will remain on this list until 1) Peyton Manning stops doing those crappy commercials, 2) Jim Irsay moves them back to Baltimore, and 3) They put Jim Harbaugh back at starting QB.
6. Baltimore Orioles - Just something about them drives me nuts.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers - Honestly, if Joey Porter doesn't shut up, somebody is going to pop a cap in his ass. Oh, right.
4. New York Jets - Maybe they slid a place or two because they have blown huge donkey goats for a few years, but there is just something about these division rivals that makes my skin crawl. Even if it is a priviledge to write about and be lectured by Chad Pennington.
3. Broncos - When your blocking scheme is to ruin the livelihood of defensive linemen, you make the top 3 on general principle.
2. Canadiens - Flop, flop, flop! Zee Great White North: where it is like soccer on ice!
1. Yankees - Despite what Rocco and Guido from Jersey say, they are pure, unadulterated evil. It's like the rich kid who is a fuck up, but it doesn't matter because daddy will buy them success, then tries to convince you that they are classy and hard-workers. If classy means paying gaudy and ridiculous amounts of money for a bunch of players who have admitted to either taking steroids or smelling like chilled grapefruit, then I don't ever want to be classy.

20 Minutes before I have to leave...

2006-09-21T09:37:00.000-05:00

So 10 Quick Hits for you:

1) So I think I've finally figured out this whole "grad school" thing: basically, you wedge yourself into an environment where you constantly are feeling broke, bored, lazy, overwhelmed, immature, overly-mature, generally accompanied by a side of worhtless. In retrospect, how does it seem like a good idea that I went from earning a decent salary with fantasic benefits on a regular and sane schedule to a life that involves tending college students like sheep, constantly rehashing a shitload of calculus III, and being paid a pittance for my trouble? More importantly, why would any prospective employer look at this decision and say, "That's a person who always makes the intelligent choice, I want him on my staff!"?

2) Now imagine having all those feeling I pointed to in 1), but knowing that instead of economics you are studying something worthless, like Latin or 17th century French Literature.

3) Another thing I've noticed about life: while you can never earn enough to buy everything you want, and I had always self-imposed a certain level of scarcity in my life in order to save, but man if I wasn't prepared for this crap. I've figured out that, when you calculate all the hours a month I spend working as a TA, and the pittance that is my salary, I'm making somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.50 an hour.

4) Ortiz ties Jimmy Foxx with his 50th homer, and yet for some reason I don't care at this point. I grow weary of the lost cause that is this season.

5) So I recently remembered that I had nearly finished writing my book and that it might be a good idea to start the last few chapters and send it off to a publisher before my semester really gets into full swing. I have a feeling that is not likely to happen. As such, I am currently looking for a co-author who might like to finish this puppy off and be given a co-author credit and 10% stake in the books profits. Any takers? OK, how about 11%?

6) The Black Adder series with Rowan Atkinson and Hugh Laurie (i.e. House, M.D.) is quite entertaining. Although the Resident Female hated it, so what do I know.

7) Am I the only one that found those "Mac, PC" commercials extremely funny during the first generation, but now find them incredibly pretensious? Or how about those VW ones? Same thing there.

8) Screw Flanders

9) Honestly, if I had to do it all over again, I think I would have skipped out on the career in economics and instead pursued a career as being a Warlord in a 3rd World country.

10) Okay, so maybe writing a post while feeling very blue because of massive sleep deprivation isn't the best idea, beacuse point ends up being negative. Aw, fuck it.

It's started

2006-09-14T09:45:00.000-05:00

Check out this article. Yes, just like the tech stocks before it and the Junk Bonds in the 80s, the end of the great "can't lose" investment strategy has started. We've seen for a few weeks now stories on the news about how it is becoming impossible to sell properties around the nation, and now with the massive uptick in interest rates causing more and more foreclosures we can expect the game of real-estate hot potato to finally end. People who planned to ride a 10% increase in home-value to sell six months later are finding that they either have to carry the property or face losing not only the massive transaction costs but also the prospect of not even digging out the original purchase price in a lot of areas.

Unfortunately, spikes in foreclosures lead to three things:
1) Drops in the value of the home, both as the ownership exchange creates motivated sellers and as many residents stop caring for the property (or in some cases are purposefully destructive)
2) Drops in the value of area homes, as cheaper and less cared for homes in the neighborhood at best make more bargains depress the opportunity for supply, and at worst can lower the desirability of the neighborhood by opening it up to lower social strata.
3) More crime. Especially in urban areas and in cases of neglect/long waits on the market, there is a noticable upswing in crime in many neighborhoods where foreclosures exceed 10%. Part of this is due to the second factor: if your home losses value and your monthly payments rise with the interest rates, this can lead to negative equity (that is, the loan balance is bigger than the resale value of the home) which can encourage more foreclosures, which continues feeding the cycle.

It's really sad that so many people were putting their faith in a never-ending housing run-up, but it always amazes me how caught up in these things people can get. This is compounded by the fact that a lot of the people who are going to be stuck with outrageous mortgages in homes they can't afford are in this situation because they thought something along the lines of, "Gee, I lost half my money in the Tech Bubble, so I've got to jump on this Real Estate thing in order to catch up to where I was." And honestly, don't be surprised if these same people flip out in two years when the energy stocks they bought last week are still hovering around the same levels next year.

2) Speaking of energy stocks, I actually am pretty high on Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH). How is it possible that I am pleased with an investment that I made which has since lost about 13% of it's equity value and has a 15% Canadian tax on all dividends? Because I've more than made my money back on the initial investment, since the stock is now yielding over 12% on it's dividends and my reinvesting those has more than made up for the loss in equity. Basically, I invested at just under $22 in '05 (in my IRA), it peaked at $25, is now below $22, and I've increased my holdings from 100 shares to 155 shares just from dividend reinvestments. Even if the dividends are being taxed by the Canadians, I'll take 85% of a 12% yield over 3% yield tax-free any day. Especially when the earnings have been rising.

Look at it like this: I'm essentially getting a free share and a half every month from a company that isn't really overextended and is making good money.

3) For the record, I think the purpose of this post is the following: there are always going to be run-ups, failures, and nice investment opportunities, but figuring out how to play them is hard. That's why it's best to be diversified pretty well. In terms of full disclosure, I'm invested in the following:

Individual stocks: 12% of my portfolio (up from 10%)
Mutual Funds: 78% of my portfolio
Bonds/Bond Funds (including TIPS): 9% of my portfolio (down from 10%)
Cash funds: 1% of my portfolio.

Plus I'm earning 5.25% on my savings in my One United savings account.

The mutual funds are 20% large cap value, 25% large cap growth, 20% international, 20% small and mid cap mixed, 10% commodities, and 5% REITs.

Basically, I've got my toes into everything, and I don't need to do anything other than rebalance occasionally. Don't put all you eggs in one basket, because market return is acceptable.